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Oil up, gold flat, Asia up, Europe down, U.S. futures down. Not really the high probability set-up that forex traders are looking for from the mechanics that set fair value on the currency pairs. Right now we have charts in the near-term that are about as ugly as they could be. Since Jun 01 09 the major pairs have averaged 125 pips of movement, and if the 400 pips that cad has moved is taken out, it averages out at 70 pips each major, for the month.
Now, that is not something to write home about, and it can all be tracked down to one thing; global equity markets. Wall Street in particular, but global markets in general, are back to their Jun 01 09 valuations. The S&P started June at 917.50, and right now sits at 913.50; in between it has ranged in a tight channel that has not allowed any other market to work fair value from. What oil has gained in June, gold has given back, and therefore counter-balanced the Usd commodity play.
Interest rate levels have not helped the volatility, with global regions literally coming to a halt each time that the Federal Reserve has come to market to buy record numbers of freshly printed notes from the Treasury. The fact that U.S. overnight rates are at zero percent in real terms, and yet 10 year yields have hit 4% is something that has sounded alarm bells in June, and something that has helped unsettle daily activity.
Quantative Easing by global central banks has robbed the markets of transparency in some regard; the market is having fair value forced on it, rather being being able to find fair value in an open market. The cloak and dagger central bank work to put right years of systemic abuse of leverage is another worry that is being absorbed in the charts in front of us.
In all, this is a time that will be looked back on as a period of transition, but also a time that sets a base to work forward from. Once buying volume hits the equity market, and it will have to if Mutual Funds are to get caught up on the market moves before their Oct 31 09 year end, the trading world will look and feel more balanced; equity buyers reflect a market that is going about the business of global trade, without the shadow of doubt being cast each day.
Without equity buyers the forex, commodity, and bond markets, are lead by the fear of loss, and as we have seen in June, and saw for twelve months up until March 2009, that really is not the greatest arena to be working in. It will all soon pass, and stability will once again reign, with markets that will have twists and turns, but markets that will lose the stair step up/elevator down moves, to the greater degree.