Wheat, Corn, Cotton, Soybean Trading Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 20 2012 3:31 AM

Wheat benefited from short-covering and spillover from corn futures to post double-digit gains in most contracts at all three exchanges. Outside of corrective price action, there was little reason for wheat traders to return as buyers Thursday. More rains are in the forecast for dry areas of Europe this weekend, with crop watchers talking about the potential for yields to return to more normal levels.

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Corn futures strengthened as the day progressed to finish 0.1925 and 0.18 higher in May and July futures, respectively, with September up 0.1525. New-crop futures were mostly + 0.12 to 0.13. Corn started off Thursday's session as a follower to soybeans, but as the day progressed, it surpassed Soybean and took over the leadership role. Today funds bought 15,000 Corn contracts, 75-M bu..

Soybean futures trimmed early gains to end 0.02 to 0.08 higher, with Soymeal higher and Soyoil mixed amid spreading. Soybeans were higher overnight, but as the USD index firmed, bulls lost their hold on the market. Still, futures ended stronger, largely due to continued strong demand and concerns about how small the South American Soybean crop will ultimately be.

Live Cattle futures spent the day in positive territory and finished in the upper half of today's trading range with gains of 0.10 to 1.02 1/2. Feeder Cattle futures finished narrowly mixed, which was good for a mid- to high-range close. Thursday traders worked to narrow the discount futures hold to Wednesday's cash prices of 121 to 122.

Lean Hog futures benefited from short-covering and spillover from neighboring pits to close 0.825 to 1.425 higher. Much of today's support came from ideas losses were overdone as futures had become oversold according to the Relative Strength Index. But Thursday's gains have moved futures back out of oversold territory, so focus in the market tomorrow is likely to return to the poor fundamental situation.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.