Afternoon U.S. trade was initiated by gold hitting the low of the session, and then breaking hard to the short side to test 931 support, oil reversing 0.6% ( a regular days move) in 5 minutes off the high of the session, and S&P futures fail miserably to hold the long break-out test of 917.
The net of it is that the Usd has been able to gain strength in what has been another session of roller coaster rides. This week's forex charts would not be out of place in most theme park ride designs; they have been up, down, sideways, and back to where they started, in the blink of an eye.
It was hoped that the global currency and commodity markets would start to wean themselves off the reliance of S&P futures trade, because it is a thin market that is full of volatility. But alas, it is not yet to be, and as such most forex plays will be to buy the tests of support, and sell the tests of resistance.
The really interesting part to it all is that the speculative interest is forcing the Average Trading Range higher on the major pairs. But, by increasing the amount moved each day from the high to the low price and yet not being able to finish far from the open, all it seems to be doing is creating huge cause (volume) and effect (price action) for the eventual break-out.
June really has bought with it the ugliest of forex charts, created from the fear of loss in the equity market, that has negated upside appreciation in stock values but at the same time been unable to get things dramatically lower. That has left a void in sentiment that increases the volatility, without being able to have the release valve of forex price movement that holds.
The subsequent currency break looks to be a big one, but if it is to be to short the dollar it will only come off positive equity trade, and positive trade that lasts for more than a 4 hour period before reversing.
The forex pair charts can be overlaid onto the S&P and a repeatable pattern is seen; wherever stocks trade is where the major pairs go. Right now, the equity market dominates, and right now it is Wall Street that is dragging the global markets lower.