Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 1.107m.m.t. Of corn was sold last week a new high for the marketing year beginning September 1 st . It was the second consecutive week over 1m.m.t. and 90% over the four week average. Key players in Asia were in for 406t.m.t. It is not a reversal to big demand surfacing but an increase from two current issues. One, some of the buying of what appears to be value incase the South American drought cuts world ending stocks. So we are getting some commercial end user hedge buying. Two, Asian neighbors of China have been buying U.S. corn as China is on its Lunar Holiday closing. Corn demand remains neutral to date to pricing. After posting sharp gains Monday on less than desirable week end rains in South America prices pulled lower on month end profit taking and calls for an improved weather outlook for Argentina and Brazil this week. Argentina saw very little moisture, leaving corn and bean production to decline. Brazil 's corn and bean areas did see enough moisture through Friday to slightly improve crop quality. The things south were only half bad and that led to our pull back. Most of Argentina 's corn is past key yield time but their beans can yet improve or worsen into mid-February. The current forecast by WXRISK.COM the weather site is for generally dry conditions in Argentina and Brazil from Saturday through Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday is the next chance fro rain. Some think it will be better moisture levels than this week but La-Nina continues to make these events smaller than expected. So again each Friday we look to what the trading ranges will be on a wet and dry forecast. If we enter Monday and the Tuesday on out or midweek rains are far less than needed for improved yields, we can expect March corn to push to 4.02 to 4.08. Drier than normal conditions through February 18 th and 4.34 could be reached. If Monday unveils a much wetter scenario to improve grains in Argentina and Brazil then 3.55 should be hit.
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 526t.m.t. of beans were sold last week off 60% from a marketing year high last week. China was in for 251t.m.t. vs. 765 the week prior. Clearly, China was loading up the week prior before their Chinese Holiday this week when sales slow. Next week could be very different as pent up buying surfaces. Like corn, beans too pushed to new highs on the month Monday before month end profit taking set in and a call for better rain in South America into Friday. Beans in Brazil this week improved as rains were consistent over main central and southern growing region but February 1 st to 15 th will decide the yields. Brazil is the number one export competitor to the United States . This coming week also is important for demand. China spent this last week on its Lunar Holiday but Monday it is back to business. Will they see recent Brazilian rain timely enough to switch purchases from the U.S. to South American for futures shipment or will they pile in buying U.S. beans for a near term hedge against further Brazilian weather problems. Note, they can buy now from the U.S. and cancel those orders in March if weather was better. Weather is driving demand and demand is driving the price. WXRISK.COM as of today sees Argentina on Tuesday and Wednesday with .50 to 2.00 inches of rain with 75% coverage and bigger totals in Brazil . We can not get wetter than that and those numbers come from the American Weather Model which is less accurate while the more accurate European Model of Weather Projection is much drier. Well it all comes to Sunday night electronic markets and Monday morning to know. If we come in Monday with heavy rains in sight, March will take out the 9.60 support and push to 9.20. If we see dry we look for March to retest recent highs of 10.40. A drier than normal February 1 st to February 20 th would have March beans test 10.90 to 11.20.
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 23t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week. That is as close to none as you can get. The reason for the low number was the cancellation of a large previous sale that then gets subtracted from new sales. Either way, demand remains seasonable neutral to pricing. Wheat continued to shadow corn and beans but much less bear spreading of long corn and beans and short wheat. Instead we saw funds selling the early week high after the week prior covering short positions. February is the transition month for wheat as dormancy breaks in the southwest hard red winter wheat states. Traders move a more neutral position. The trade will watch weather in late February for Texas and Oklahoma as those two states went dormant in very poor condition. The winter has left drought fears in high gear in those two states. A wet March and April would change the four prior month's bad weather but February will be looked at as a leading indicator of a weather trend continuing. Additionally, the poor weather in Argentina had their government suspend exports which largely go to Brazil lending thought Brazil may turn to the U.S. to fill the hole. Goal in February is to find a low to get long as the February low will hold through June as spring wheat futures push higher to insure they do not lose acres to beans come spring planting. It is April through June that the world turns to the U.S. for summer shipments leaving seasonal demand strong. Key winter wheat producers from Kansas north and east to Ohio went dormant at historically high ratings. If April and May weather is good, it sets the U.S. up to be the primary port of origin in the world for high quality milling wheat. Weather of course decides that- Near term next week we follow the lead of corn and beans. March wheat has support at 5.70 then 5.50 on a rain break. First resistance is 5.95 then 6.10.