This time last year we published an article entitled “Tis the Season: What History Tells Us about Buying Gold after Thanksgiving”. In this article, we made a simple point: not once in the last five years has the gold market not moved up at least 12% in the six months following the December low. As with the previous five years, 2011 did not disappoint. Here’s the updated numbers:

2005 – December Low: $489
May High: $725
Increase: 48%

2006 – December Low: $614
May High: $688
Increase: 12%

2007 – December Low: $784
May High: $1011
Increase: 29%

2008 – December Low: $749
May High: $989
Increase: 32%

2009 – December Low: $1084
May High: $1261
Increase: 16%

2010 – December Low: $1363
May High $1552
Increase: 13%

Average Six Month Return: 25%

As we stated last year, December is often a pretty quiet month for gold. Many traders have closed their books for the year, and volume tends to be quite low. We often see the market soften up, especially in the last part of the month. This year is no exception.

What a lot of people tend to miss is the fact that almost without fail, the month of December has been one of the best times to buy gold in each of the last six years. An investor who had bought gold at the December low and sold at the following May’s high in each of the last six years would have seen a total spot price appreciation of 150%.

Sometimes markets are a lot simpler than the “experts” like to make them out to be. When we predicted at least a 12% six-month rise last year, that’s almost exactly what we got. That’s not to say it will necessarily happen again, but six out of six years is not a bad record to bet on. Any way you shake it, it often pays to be a contrarian. We said it last year and we’ll say it again: Don’t forget gold on your holiday shopping list…chances are it will help give you a little bigger gift budget for next year.

Mike Getlin is Executive Vice President of Merit Financial, home to America's fastest growing physical gold IRA company. Please send comments or questions to