What I mean is: as poor man's gold, silver tends to rally last in precious metals rally. It's sort of like the penny stock of precious metals, and it will usually go parabolic and reliably help to mark the end of precious metals rallies.

Today, gold is at a record but silver is still nearly $4 (20%) below its all-time high, meaning speculators are not yet running wild in this group. Indeed, I've heard plenty of smart traders in recent days suggesting that people take profits in gold.

I could write here the sign I think these profit takers are overlooking, but I actually wrote about this same set-up in September of 2007:

...from that point until early 2008, gold rallied from $750 to over $1000 for the first time. But silver went from below $14 to over $21, obviously a larger percentage gain. I sense the same  skepticism toward metals today.

Because speculative fever does not yet seem to be running hot in precious metals, I expect gold and silver to keep running, with silver being the biggest gainer from here.

Anyway, I thought you might find this interesting and actually, I'm going to turn this email into a blog post in a minute...

I'm here to discuss this today and next week, if interested.


Chip Hanlon