The US dollar dropped back since the start the trading week as the EU helped out Greece who then began to enter the Bonds markets to raise the 40B Euro in the next 3 months as stated. Of course the problem for EU is not only Greece but includes Portugal, Italy, Spain as well. Then after a bailout that's not to say the euro will start to climb and everything will be fine in the EU. In fact we may find that this bail out for Greece might be the beginning of a new surprise in the EU in which there could be continued pressure on the euro and the global markets as well.
Looking at the currencies market, the European currency rose to test that much talked about psychological resistance of 1.35 and as we've previously mentioned the Euro tried to break above that level today but dropped back to record a current new low for the day of 1.3430. I'm still negative on the Euro and see it unlikely to break or test 1.35 again instead looking for 1.3370 and 1.3310 soon.
GBPUSD, the British pound hiked up today due to a surprising UK final GDP for the Q1 of 0.4% vs 0.3% in Q4 of 2009. A sign that the British economy is recovering faster than everyone thought but equally we should not forget that inflation rates and unemployment which will lead the BOE to continue with injecting more money in the financial system and QE. The pound for now remains capped below 1.5170 as it represents a strong resistance level and for now is likely to drop back towards 1.5050 and 1.5000.
USDCHF, the US Dollar remains high versus the Swiss franc trading around 1.0620. I am still positive on USDCHF and its likely to see 1.0700 soon with SNB stating that it will continue to force the Swiss franc lower against the Euro and the US Dollar.
AUDUSD, the Aussie is back trading around 0.9200 following high goods prices. The AUDUSD remains capped below its major down trend line representing a strong resistance around 0.9217. Following the expected bearish move of Gold prices its unlikely to break above 0.9217 and I am looking for it to see 0.9110 followed by 0.9070 soon.
Gold, I've said before that gold prices remain in a minor down trend targeting 1020 USD per ounce short term. The major trend remains bullish but we expect a medium term pullback to 1020 before the next bullish leg towards 1200 USD after which we may see 1500 USD per ounce this year. So for now gold is unlikely to break above 1120, which represents it's 100 DAY moving average. I am still negative gold medium term and can see a likely fall to 1100 and 1090 this week.
Crude Oil, the Oil price hike up again above 81 USD as the Iranians announced that they are launching a new nuclear station affecting the fundamental outlook. If we look to the technical side we get a different view showing us this move might not continue due the double top formation at 83 USD that we have mentioned in our previous reports. I am looking to see oil prices around 80 USD per barrel again soon.