About two weeks ago January orange juice was trading at 15500 and three weeks ago made it to Below 14700. Nothing has changed but the price. As January 2012 juice has moved to 17500. The 16000 puts can be had for 150-160 points. Each point for the juice contract is $1.50 so the 160 Put which was well into the money just weeks ago would cost about $250. I look for at least 15000 during the weeks ahead. Supplies are ample, we have seen no hurricane or frost threats and, as mentioned, the only change was the rise to 17500.
Buy the January 2012 (expires 12/16) at 160 points or better ($240)