For the past few months orange juice wallowed between 165 and 180. A cold front which has filtered Down to Florida has sparked a speculative drive higher from 178 to 207 in TWO sessions. There has been no major damage to date and most groves report no damage. This may be the textbook, Buy the rumor, sell the fact market. If there is no damage, we could quicjkly see a drop back to 165-170 within days. I wish not to trade futures in the unlikely event we see further cold and speculation but an inexpensive put option for March may pay off nicely. Futures are currently trading at 207.50 and the March 175 put can be had for about 150 points or $225 as the OJ contract OJ represents $1.50 per point.
The Trade: Buy the Macrh Orange Juice 175 put option for 150 points = $225
Objective: Risk the $225 premium and look for a futures drop to 170 near term or 1000 points for the option.