Total crude oil and petroleum products stocks climbed +0.70 mmb to 1062.94 mmb in the week ended October 21. Crude stockpile soared +4.74 mmb to 337.63 mmb as stocks PADD 3 and 5 increased significantly. Cushing stock climbed +0.42 mmb to 31.51 mmb. Utilization rate rose +1.7% to 84.8%.

Gasoline inventory fell -1.35 mmb to 204.92 mmb although demand dipped -1.13% to 8.50M bpd. Production dropped -4.05% to 8.94M bpd but imports jumped +47.38% to 0.68M bpd. Distillate inventory slipped -4.28 mmb to 145.46 mmb as demand climbed +1.58% to 4.25M bpd. Production edged +0.55% higher while production soared +37.38% during the week.

Oil extended today's decline as investors took profit ahead of the EU summit. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil plunged below 92 after the report amid bigger-than-expected crude stock-build. Mixed US data failed to impact prices. Durable goods orders contracted -0.8% m/m in September, following a -0.1% drop a month ago. Excluding transportation, orders climbed +1.7% after dropping -0.1% in August. New home sales surprisingly increased +6.10% to 313K in September.

Weekly change in inventory as of 21/10/11 ActualChangeConsensusPrevious
Crude oil 337.63 mmb+4.74 mmb+1.48 mmb-4.73 mmb
Gasoline 204.92 mmb-1.35 mmb-1.75 mmb-3.32 mmb
Distillate 154.46 mmb-4.28 mmb-1.50 mmb-4.27 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

API (Oct 21) EIA (Oct 21)
ActualInventoryPreviousForecast (using API's inventory level)Inventory
Crude oil+2.71 mmb340.01 mmb-3.13 mmb+7.11 mmb340 mmb
Gasoline+0.15 mmb209.72 mmb-1.64 mmb

+3.45 mmb

210 mmb
Distillate-1.80 mmb147.91 mmb-2.20 mmb-1.83 mmb148 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries. Data from the API and DOE have moved in the same direction 71% of the time over the past 52 weeks

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA

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