FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - No change in $/yen as trade from the Dec low at 87.15 is seen as a large, irregular correction, and with an eventual resumption of the longer term declines after. Currently, the market is down from the Apr 6th high at 101.40 (also a 38% retracement from the June 2007 high at 124.15) and may have completed the multi-month correction (wave C).
This in turn suggests that further declines toward 96.00/10, 94.30/40 (50% retracement from the 87.15 low) and even below may be ahead. Note too that the 5 wave fall from the 101.40 high (see short term chart at www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm ) adds weight to this view. On a very near term basis however, the market is testing key support in the 97.35/65 area (recent low, 50% retracement from the March 19th low at 93.60 and the bullish trendline since Jan) and suggests at least a few days of correcting, and 2 yen bounce first.
Note too that there is also some risk for more topping back to the 101.40 and even temporarily above, though not currently favored, said David Solin, analyst at FXA.com. So for now, it's not seen as the time to just chase the market lower but instead will let this near term bounce play out with the expectation of a bigger picture chance to short ahead (and likely at higher levels).
Resistance before 101.40 is seen at 99.45/60. Note, in the April 8th email affirmed the long position (rebought on March 26th at 98.70) but warned that an important top was likely nearing. Took profits a few days later below the bullish trendline since mid March (then at 99.80 but closed at 98.95).
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