• Global stock averages have seen a very healthy start to 2021, building on the recovery strength from 2020.
  • This is in the face of a second/ third wave of COVID-19 impacting globally, and across the major economic nations.
  • This second/ third wave of COVID-19 has seen large numbers of cases, hospitalisations and deaths, bringing significant lockdowns and restrictions across continents. 
  • A large part of the strength in the global share indices has been driven by the expectation of a global economic recovery in 2021 and 2022 as the global population is vaccinated.
  • In addition, US stock markets have led global stocks higher with the expectation of a strong fiscal package from President Joe Biden, with the Democrats controlling both Houses of Congress.
  • A strong and generous fiscal package would stimulate both the US consumer and US business, as well as bolstering global economic activity.
  • Hence, the major US equity average, including the S&P 500 as featured below, are leading global stock markets higher.

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S&P 500 March Future: Still a bull bias 

Intermediate-term outlook

The push above 3823.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

Upside risks:  We see an intermediate-term bull trend to aim for 4000.0 and 4255.75.

What changes this?  Below 3656.0 shifts the intermediate-term bull trend straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.

8 HOUR S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE 8 HOUR S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE Photo: Screen Shot

DAX Futures: Rebound, aiming still higher

Intermediate-term outlook

The push above the key cycle high at 14123 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bull trend.

Upside risks:  We see an intermediate-term bull trend to target 14375, 14850 and maybe 15000.

What changes this?  Below 13298 switches straight to an intermediate-term bear trend.

8 Hour Dax Future 8 Hour Dax Future Photo: Screenshot

FTSE 100 Future: Holding onto a recovery bias

Intermediate-term outlook

The late January plunge below key 6380 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a bear trend.

Downside risks:  We see an intermediate-term bear trend to aim for 6265/37, 6000 and maybe 5943-29.5.

What changes this?  Above 6736 shifts the intermediate-term bear trend straight to an intermediate-term bull trend.

Daily FTSE 100 FUTURE Daily FTSE 100 FUTURE Photo: Screenshot