Avon Products Inc's
After years of earnings misses and restructurings and pouring tens of millions of dollars into a foreign bribery probe, Avon will be handing its new CEO a long to-do list that will need to be completed to restore investor confidence.
The new CEO should be operationally focused and fiscally disciplined. I don't think direct selling experience is a necessity, but emerging-market and turnaround expertise would be nice, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Ali Dibadj said.
On Tuesday, Avon announced that it would look outside for a new CEO and that current chairman and CEO Andrea Jung would become executive chairman.
Shares of Avon surged as much as 11 percent and ended up 5 percent on the prospect that the company will undergo a full overhaul under the new CEO after several years of earnings disappointments and restructurings.
We want to believe the board will encourage any new CEO to consider Avon's entire business model with a blank sheet of paper, Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman said.
But that overhaul could be lengthy.
Even in straightforward situations, external CEO searches can take several months, Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman said in a research note. Avon is anything but a simple situation, she added, noting the complexity of the company's business model and an ongoing SEC investigation into whether overseas employees violated U.S. bribery laws.
Among steps that Lieberman is looking for is for the company to redesign its global supply chain to better manage volatile foreign exchange rates in its many markets, deal with changes in consumer demand and cut the time it takes to put out new sales brochures.
The new CEO will also need to deal with overhauling Avon's computer systems, a process that has led to snafus like not having the products that representatives had ordered in markets like Brazil.
Avon is also still dealing with the fallout from a bribery investigation that began in China in 2008, and the new CEO will need to push along the slow process of moving to a direct sales model there.
The new CEO in some ways may first be a chief operating officer, a post that Avon has not had since 2006, analysts said.
RESTING ON LAURELS
Avon, famed for its Ding Dong, Avon Calling campaign of the 1950s and 1960s, saw stellar growth through to the early 2000s as it expanded internationally, bringing the prospect of a career - or extra pocket money - to women in locales as diverse as South Africa and South Korea.
However, Avon took its eye off direct-sales competition, such as Brazil's Natura
The lack of an internal candidate is not a surprise, as Jung had run operations without a president or chief operating officer for years, while former chief financial officer, Chuck Cramb, has already been moved into a into a new post overseeing developed markets such as the sluggish United States.
The apparent lack of succession planning is an extraordinary indictment of the board, said Mark Cohen, professor at Columbia Business School and former CEO of Sears Canada.
Now, as Avon wraps up celebrations around the globe for its 125th anniversary, investors who have watched the stock fall by nearly 45 percent in 2011 alone may also have something to celebrate.
Avon shares had only appreciated about 1.7 percent since Jung was named CEO until the announcement of the CEO search. The shares shot up as much as 11 percent to $17.91 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
Graphic on Avon shares during Jung's tenure: http://link.reuters.com/kyx55s
As a company with roughly 6.5 million representatives, Avon needs someone who can motivate its sales force. Jung, 53, has been CEO since 1999 and the Princeton graduate's persona was often a big part of the allure for representatives who liked to see a successful woman at the top of the company.
This is a momentum business and they need to restore morale
in the field, said Consumer Edge Research analyst Javier Escalante, who kept his neutral rating on the shares.
He suggested that someone with sales experience and charisma should run the show, perhaps Leslie Blodgett, the creator and executive chairman of Bare Escentuals.
You need somebody who can sell a piece of ice to an Eskimo, and she is one of those, Escalante said.
Last year, Japan's Shiseido <4911.T> bought Bare Escentuals for $1.7 billion.
Another strong contender could be Herbalife Ltd
Avon has seen losses of representatives in North America, where many women find other things such as food and jewelry more appealing - and profitable - to sell. Some analysts have even suggested it leave the U.S. market, or get into stores to hawk its goods more effectively.
THE AMWAY WAY
While Avon continues to try to fix its maze of computer systems around the globe other direct sellers have been updating their systems and expanding into fresh categories to keep up with what consumers want.
Sales are booming at Amway, which while based in Ada, Michigan, now makes about 90 percent of its revenue outside of the United States with a sales force of more than 3 million.
Amway, which is privately held, saw sales climb 9.5 percent to more than $9.2 billion in 2010 and they should rise substantially in 2011, Steve Lieberman, vice president and managing director of Amway North America, said in a recent interview.
Avon had $10.73 billion in sales in 2010, but with roughly twice as many sales representatives.
We have advantages because we are private, said Lieberman. Being private allows us to look long term. Some of our competitors are having problems now, and they're very public.
Avon has already made some major management changes, bringing in Chief Financial Officer Kimberly Ross in late November and Fernando Acosta, president of its large Latin America business, at the beginning of December.
A committee of three long-serving board members, along with Jung, will look outside the company for a new CEO. Once Avon finds someone, Jung will have a new two-year contract for the executive chairman role, with the possibility of an extension.
The CEO search is being led by Fred Hassan, managing director and partner at Warburg Pincus LLC, along with Maria Elena Lagomasino, CEO of GenSpring Family Offices, and Lawrence Weinbach, managing director of Yankee Hill Capital Management. Hassan and Weinbach have served on Avon's board since 1999, and Lagomasino joined in 2000.
Jung has the full support of the board, according to a statement Hassan made on Tuesday.
This elevation to executive chair is hopefully just a face-saving ploy because it's not credible for her to participate either in the selection of her successor or to co-exist with someone who has to be brought in to significantly turn the company around, said Cohen.
(Reporting by Jessica Wohl in Chicago; Additional reporting by Phil Wahba and Jilian Mincer in New York and Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Gunna Dickson, Bernard Orr, Gary Hill)