* WHAT: China's Q4 GDP growth

* WHEN: Jan 21

REUTERS FORECAST: Median +10.9 pct in Q4 vs +8.9 pct in Q3. Seventeen analysts participated in the survey and the range was from 10.0 pct to 12.0 pct.

FACTORS TO WATCH: China is expected to return to double-digit economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, partly due to a low comparison base in the fourth quarter of 2008, when GDP growth dipped to 6.8 percent.

China's exports were particularly strong in December last year, rising 17.7 percent after 13 months of annual decline.

If the GDP growth in the last quarter proves to be stronger than expected, Beijing could move even more aggressively to manage inflation, following an unexpected increase in deposit reserve requirements announced on Tuesday.

MARKET IMPACT: Economists and analysts are widely expecting a strong GDP growth rate, and the fourth quarter data could confirm mainstream views that the Chinese economy has recovered. That in turn could lead Beijing to quicken its pace in exiting its crisis-mode policies, including fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy.

China's domestic stock market could fall if strong GDP data led to further government tightening. But strong GDP data might be interpreted as a positive news for the commodities market because it would reflect healthy underlying demand for energy and resources.

Breakdown of forecasts



Bank of Communications 11.0

Bohai Securities 10.3

China Construction Bank 10.0

Capital Economics 12.0

CICC 10.9

Essence Securities 10.0

Fortune Trust 10.5

Goldman Sachs 11.5

Guosen Securities 10.5

Guotai Junan Securities 11.0

Industrial Securities 10.8

ING 11.0

Merrill Lynch 11.2

Morgan Stanley 11.0

Orient Securities 10.6

Qilu Securities 11.2

Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 10.5




LAST YEAR (Q4, 2008) 6.8

All China economic data

(Reporting by Beijing Economics Team; editing by Ken Wills)