The global economic recovery is not only underway but it will most likely rebound more sharply than most forecasters expect, veteran economist Michael Mussa says.
[T]he new forecast now projects somewhat higher real GDP growth looking forward than was anticipated in April, Mussa wrote in a report released last week.
The former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
He cites the Zarnowitz rule, established by the late economist Victor Zarnowitz, which he believes applies to the current situation, noting that deep recessions are typically followed by steep recoveries.
Real global GDP this year will fall more than expected, he says, dropping by 1.1 percent instead of 0.8 percent. However the recovery next year will be sharply higher at 4.2 percent compared with 3.7 percent.
Mussa’s downgrade for the current year reflects a downgrade of the forecast for the advanced economies to -3.3 percent from 2.8 percent, and an upgrade of the forecast for the emerging market and developing countries to 1.9 percent from 1.7 percent.
Next year’s global growth forecast upgrade reflects upgrades to the forecasts for both advanced economies (by 0.3 percent) and emerging-market and developing economies (by 0.7 percent).