Analysis

March 21 2013 7:59 AM

Natural Gas has struggled at 3.965-3.976 for the past 3 days. We had warned the market should run out of momentum here but we do need a stop loss on shorts above 4.050 for 4.413/414 as the next upside target. Failure to break higher in this severely over bought market should see us drift back to 3.924/917. Bears need the market back below here or we risk another move towards this week’s high. If we do continue lower, look for another test of 3.869/855 support & a good chance of a low for the day again. However a break of 3.834 could keep the pressure on for excellent support and a buying opportunity at 3.778/777.

March 07 2013 8:32 AM

Natural Gas fell back from resistance at 3.592/613 to support at 3.483 as expected. We watched for a bounce from here & although we over ran slightly to 3.462 we are now holding above 3.483. A move back up to 3.540/3.554 is possible today & even a test of resistance at 3.592/613 but we do not expect this level to be broken now. Support is at 3.483/3.462 but if we break lower we could expect to test the next support level at 3.415/3.400. This should provide a floor for today but if we sink further look for 3.359.

February 28 2013 10:09 AM

WTI Crude Oil retested resistance at 93.40 & held as expected. Today there is a much better chance that we can break higher to reach 94.30/50 & we could even stretch towards 95.01 which should provide a good selling opportunity with a top expected. Support at 92.18/92 could hold again if retested with the very short term picture more positive for today at least. The daily outlook remains weak however & so a break should target 91.58 & a floor likely if tested this week. If we break 91.10 however look for 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80. Below here 200 day MA at 90.43 then the up trend line at 90.00 should be a buying opportunity at this stage.

February 28 2013 9:58 AM

Natural Gas did push through 3.480 as hoped to hit the 3.534 target. We over ran just a little to 3.554 but then turned lower. We have bounced off support at 3.390 & if we can hold above 3.460 we could go for another test of 3.534/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance but a break would target 3.592/613. Support at 3.399/386 could hold a move lower again but a break then targets 3.339/315 where we would expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here.

February 26 2013 9:41 AM

Brent made it to 115.40/60 as hoped but went a little further to 115.87 before topping out. We have now tested & held good support in the 113.65/35 band as expected but if we do break lower look for 113.07 then 112.70/60. Here we should see a floor but longs need a stop below 112.30. There is a good chance of a rally back to 114.34 today. We are in a down trend so this could see selling pressure but if we push on look for 114.97, possibly 115.46/49 but doubtful any further.

February 26 2013 9:33 AM

WTI Crude Oil pushed higher to 94.37 & failed just below 94.81/96 where we predicted a high. We then collapsed to the target of 91.99 & have bounced from here. Any rally is expected to be short lived but we could reach for 93.14/40. Watch for a high for the day here but if we do continue higher we may reach 93.87/92 for a selling opportunity. Support at 91.99/92 may hold if retested but the daily outlook remains weak & so an eventual break lower should target 91.58 which may provide a floor today. If however we break 91.10 look for 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80. Below here 200 day MA at 90.43 then the up trend line at 90.00 should be a buying opportunity at this stage.

February 22 2013 9:07 AM

WTI Crude Oil hit our first target for the April contract of 92.85/82 & bottomed only a little lower at 92.63. We expect the bounce to continue over the next 2 session to target 93.92 & then 94.72. This is only a correction in what should be a developing down trend & therefore we may want to exit longs here. If we manage to push any higher we can test trend line resistance at 95.15, possibly Fibonacci at 96.02. Support at 92.80/60 could be expected to hold again today but longs need a stop below 92.40 as we can then target 91.99 & possibly 91.52/30.

February 22 2013 8:53 AM

Gasoil continued lower as predicted to hit our target of 981/979. We expected this to offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here. We did over run slightly to 976 but have bounced as hoped. We expect to see run back up to 989/990 today & here we may top out for the weekend but if we can push higher look for 998/999. This should cap the bounce with the longer term picture looking negative now & a sell off expected again next week. The 980/77 band is expected to hold again today if tested but a break should pressure for 971. Below here we have excellent support at 966/964.

February 20 2013 9:19 AM

Gasoil is hovering below 1004 after we just held 1000/999 support yesterday as hoped. However a break lower is more likely today so any longs need a stop & reverse in to shorts below 996 for 991/989 as the next target & support. There is scope for 981/979 perhaps later in the week which would offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here. Resistance is at 1004/05 but above 1006 look for 1010/11 then 1015 with 1018 likely to cap any rally this week.