There is a significant chance that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the next two years, although a reversal is unlikely in the next few months, researchers at the San Francisco Fed said on Monday.
The probability of another economic recession over the next 18 to 24 months is higher than the odds of expansion, researchers said in the latest issue of the regional Fed bank's Economic Letter.
Of course, economic policy can strongly influence the outcome, the researchers said. The policies that are adopted today could play a decisive role in shaping the pace of growth.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir)