The 2015 Super Bowl marks the sixth time in the last 14 years that the New England Patriots will play in the big game. While their first appearance saw the Patriots win as one of the biggest underdogs in the game’s history, New England has been favored in every Super Bowl since, including Sunday’s matchup with the Seattle Seahawks.
No matter the point spread, the betting public expects the Patriots to cover and win. On Wednesday, Sportsbook.ag tweeted that 73 percent of the action was on New England-1. A day later, Bovada.lv Sports Book Manager Kevin Bradley said 60 percent of the money was on the Patriots, though the Patriots had received 70 percent of the bets last week.
Even though the point spread is currently tied for the smallest in Super Bowl history, a win for the Patriots could be a lopsided contest. Of their 12 regular-season wins, only two were by one possession. New England won seven of their regular-season games by at least 22 points, and they topped the Indianapolis Colts, 45-7, in the AFC Championship Game.
The Seahawks won’t be easy to defeat by a large margin. Three of Seattle’s losses came by one possession, and they lost to the San Diego Chargers by nine points in Week 2. However, the Patriots didn’t simply take advantage of bad teams in their blowout victories. Five of their wins of 22 points or more came against playoff teams.
Seattle barely got by the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, but that contest is not indicative of how they’ve played during their eight game winning streak. The Seahawks’ seven wins prior to facing Green Bay all came by double-digits, and they beat the Denver Broncos by 35 points in last year’s Super Bowl.
New England was blown out in their first two losses, losing to the Miami Dolphins by 13 points in the season opener and falling to the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-14, in Week 4. The Patriots were defeated by a total of 13 points in their next two losses.
All five of New England’s Super Bowl appearances with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have produced close games. Four of those Super Bowls have been decided by a score in the final minute of regulation. In 2005, the Patriots beat the Philadelphia Eagles by three points. New England was favored and failed to cover the spread in their last four Super Bowls.
Only one Super Bowl has ever been decided by one point. Five of the last seven Super Bowls have been decided by less than seven points.