Brazil's economy rebounded by 7.7 percent in the third quarter, surging out of recession as it tries to shrug off the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, according to figures released Thursday by the national statistics institute.

The recovery is significant but remains below the average 8.8 percent growth predicted by analysts surveyed by Brazil's largest financial newspaper, Valor.

"To say that a 7.7 percent increase is disappointing shows just how exceptional a period we are living in for economic activity," said Andre Perfeito of Brazil's Necton consultants. "The fact is we were expecting a bigger increase."

Overall, GDP has fallen 5 percent over the same period in 2019.

The government of far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro forecasts an overall decline of 4.5 percent for Latin America's biggest economy in 2020.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is less optimistic, however. On Wednesday it predicted a 5.8 percent drop in Brazil's GDP in 2020 and a 2.8 percent rebound next year.

The Q3 recovery "is a bit weaker than had been expected, but the data still confirm that the economy has fared better than other major Latin American countries so far during this crisis," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

Brazil, with 212 million people, entered a recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in 2020 -- 2.5 percent in the first quarter and 9.7 percent in the second.

A man holds two hundred-reais notes after Brazil's Central Bank issued them in Brasilia, in September 2020
A man holds two hundred-reais notes after Brazil's Central Bank issued them in Brasilia, in September 2020 AFP / Sergio Lima

The country has been hit hard by the pandemic, which has killed more than 174,000 people, the second-highest death toll worldwide after the United States.

The third-quarter rebound is driven by government aid to businesses and the 60 million or so poorest Brazilians, but at the price of an increasingly high public deficit and debt.

"It looks like activity held up well going into Q4 and the latest vaccine developments are clearly good news," said Jackson, though he warned that fiscal austerity "remains a headwind to the outlook in 2021.".

The aid, initially amounting to the equivalent of around $115, was reduced by half in September and is set to be eliminated at the end of this month.

The government has been providing almost a third of the population with the emergency aid since April 3, which has been credited with preventing greater economic devastation from the pandemic.

It has already cost the government more than $115 billion, or 8.6 percent of GDP.

Public debt already represented 90.7 percent of GDP in October, as against 75.8 percent in December 2019.

These are worrying figures for Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, an ultra liberal who promised a major austerity drive and reforms to clean up public finances when he took office two years ago.

"We are living in a moment of uncertainty, with more questions than answers," said Jason Vieira, a consultant at Infinity Asset Management.

He said Brazil badly needs reforms to compensate for the fast-approaching end of emergency aid that has re-invigorated the economy.

But many uncertainties remain about the government's ability to implement unpopular reforms, with Bolsonaro seeking re-election and often at loggerheads with Congress.

Coronavirus