SAP, Oracle: Impact from Japan Earthquake

Last week's earthquake and tsunami in northern Japan and its aftermath in the form of nuclear reactor crisis present a near-term disruption for a handful of software companies that have exposure to the region.

Japan is the third-largest economy in the world and one of the largest trading partners of the U.S., so any long term disruption should ripple through the U.S. and the global economy.

We think the worst-case scenario at this point would be if Tokyo were to shut down because of dangerous radiation levels. This would have global repercussions and result in a slowdown of the global economy, FBR Capital Markets analyst David Hilal wrote in a note to clients.

Impact on SAP, Oracle

FBR analysts expect some March-quarter deals in Japan to be delayed as companies evaluate the impact of the earthquake on their businesses, which would have a near-term impact on the traditional software license models of SAP and Oracle.

SAP (NYSE: SAP) would be more impacted in the near term as it has a March-quarter close compared to February for Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL).

We note that many Japanese companies have fiscal years that end in March, so there is the risk that budgets may not see the usual year-end flush, the analysts said.

While the exposure of SAP and Oracle to Asia-Pacific and Japan are generally in line with that of overall worldwide IT spending, the analysts think their traditional license models leaves them susceptible to deal slippages in the region in the near term.

ADRs of SAP were down 75 cents to $55.80 on the NYSE. Shares of Oracle were down 38 cents to $30.79 on Nasdaq.