Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2019: Odds and Prediction for NFL Week 12 Game

The 2019 NFC South divisional race has been a story of one team, the New Orleans Saints. Although the Carolina Panthers are still in playoff contention, their 5-5 record means that they have little chance at winning the divisional crown. Two teams that are even further adrift in the NFC South face each other in NFL Week 12: Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Both teams sit at 3-7 entering their match-up Sunday in what should be a well-contested game. Neither team has been playing good defense this season, so fans should expect a high-scoring affair despite the lack of playoff implications.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the NFL’s second-worst defense having given up 313 points. Only the Arizona Cardinals have given up more points this season with 317, although they have played one more game. The Atlanta Falcons haven’t fared much better having yielded 262 points entering NFL week 12.

Their defensive differences shrink a bit when looking at yards given up per game. Opponents average 369.3 yards per game against the Falcons while the Bucs give away 371.8 yards on average. However, it is with the ball that we can see daylight appear between the two sides.

Tampa Bay is simply the better offensive team. In 2019, the Buccaneers have scored 277 points, good for seventh in the NFL. Meanwhile, Atlanta has scored 220 points over the course of the regular season.

That is a fairly dramatic difference which is not reflected in total offensive yards. The Falcons have averaged 374.8 yards per game while the Bucs gain an average of 380.4 yards against opponents each week.

This all points to an attacking bonanza with neither team seeming confident on defense. The slim differences between the Falcons and Buccaneers are also reflected in the odds and spread.

The FanDuel sportsbook lists a spread of -3.5 for this game. Meanwhile, the same bookmaker gives Atlanta better odds with a money line of -194 to Tampa Bay’s +166. The over-under for this game is huge given the poor defenses on display with a 51.5.

Although it will be close, victory is more likely for the Falcons than the Buccaneers.

Predicted score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 31