:: Australian Dollar: Friday's private sector credit data out of Australia gave the Aussie dollar a boost from 0.8880 to send it above the 89 cent level heading into the European session. In a volatile finish to the week the AUD bounced back from a dip towards 0.8870 rallying to 0.8980 following some optimism surrounding Europe and an upgrade in U.S economic growth. In what is a massive week on the Australian economic data calendar the Aussie dollar is expected to remain very volatile with the recent 0.8800 to 0.8950 range likely to be broken.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8910 to 0.9010
:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling traded to 1.5155, its lowest level since May 2009 against the Greenback following more disappointing U.K economic data on Friday. An unexpected 1% decline in the February Nationwide House Price Index coupled with a larger than forecast -3.3% (Vs exp. -3.1%) annualised GDP figure triggered the GBP/USD slide. There was some respite however during the U.S time-zone with some confidence in the global recovery emerging to take GBP/USD back to finish the week at 1.5235. The slide in the GBP and a rally in the AUD saw the GBP/AUD cross rate exchange below 1.7 and open this morning near its lows at 1.7005.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6900 to 1.7075
:: New Zealand Dollar: After holding on to a 0.6920 to 0.6950 range during Friday's Asian and European sessions the Kiwi finally sparked into action during the U.S time-zone. The market shrugged off disappointing U.S housing data and instead focused on an upward revision in Q4 GDP and a possible 25 billion EUR support package for Greece. The increase in confidence benefited both the Aussie and Kiwi with the latter gaining ground to exchange back above 70 cents against the Greenback. This morning sees the NZD exchanging near the highs at 0.6995 USD and 1.2805 AUD ahead of what is a very light week on the N.Z calendar front.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6950 to 0.7050
:: Majors: The Euro held on to support ahead of 1.3550 against the Greenback during Friday's offshore session with headline January Consumer Price Inflation data coming in right on expectations at -0.8% for the month. Confidence in a solution to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece gave EUR/USD a boost as news emerged that a possible 25 billion EUR support package is being discussed by EU officials. Despite some poor U.S housing data an upward revision in Q4 GDP gave risk sentiment a boost sending EUR/USD back to finish at 1.3680 with USD/JPY at 88.85. The week ahead sees some key Euro-zone economic data releases with the U.S calendar light midweek.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: TD Securities Feb Inflation, Q4 Current Account Balance & Q4 Inventories
- NZD: Jan Visitor Arrivals
- USD: Jan PCE, Feb ISM Prices Paid & Jan Construction Spending
- GBP: Jan Mortgage Approvals, Jan Net Consumer Credit & Feb PMI
- EUR: Feb Manufacturing PMI & Jan Unemployment
- JPY: Feb Vehicle Sales