Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens marginally lower on Monday against the greenback at 0.9201. Last Friday saw another move towards US93 cents as investors sold the Japanese Yen to move into higher-yielding currencies, in what is commonly known as a carry trade. The local unit is nudging one-year highs against the Yen at 84.58. In offshore action the Aussie retreated beneath US92 cents after Wall Street fell 1 per cent, giving back the gains of the previous session and sapping the market's confidence. However, the Aussie is expected to remain supported by the prevailing broad-based greenback weakness.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.9160 to 0.9245
Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling opens sharply lower against the greenback on Monday at 1.6284 after figures released on Friday showed the UK economy is still mired in its longest recession on record. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.4 per cent in the September quarter increasing the likelihood of the Bank of England expanding its bond purchase program and keeping interest rates at the record low of 0.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the pound has also lost ground against both the Australian Dollar (1.7660) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1580).
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7500 to 1.7750
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens steady on Monday at 0.7538. Last Fridays trading range was fairly subdued by recent standards with the kiwi moving between a high of 0.7596 down to 0.7521 as many in the market were content to sit on the sidelines ahead of the labour day public holiday today. Looming large for the currency is this Thursdays review of the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Whilst rates are tipped to rise over time, the next hike is unlikely to occur this week which may keep a temporary lid on the kiwi.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7480 to 0.7560
Majors: The Euro opens the week higher at 1.4995 after breaching the 1.5000 level last Friday for the first time in fourteen months as further signs of global economic growth increased demand for higher-yielding assets. German business confidence rose to a 13-month high of 91.9 in October, up from 91.3 in September. The Euro hit an overnight high of 1.5059 and has appreciated 20 per cent against the big dollar since February this year. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen opens at 91.90 after staging its biggest weekly decline against the U.S. Dollar since August.
- AUD: PPI, Q3
- CAD: No data today
- EUR: No data today
- GBP: No data today
- JPY: Nomura/JMMA PMI Manufacturing, Oct
- NZD: No data today
- USD: Chicago/Dallas Fed, Sept/Oct Index
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