:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar continued its stellar run higher breaking through 86 cents in early European trade. With Gold prices breaking through the psychological $1000 barrier and a strong NAB business confidence survey there was enough demand for AUD to push the local currency to an eventual high near 0.8650 during U.S exchange. This morning sees the AUD open slightly above 86 cents with several key economic releases scheduled for today. The headline grabbing July Retail Sales data has forecasters predicting a rebound from the previous months 1.4% drop to an increase of somewhere around 0.5%. Although this statistic has been very volatile and hard to predict of late it is assumed consumer spending has improved since the beginning of the year.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8575 to 0.8675
:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling received a much needed boost overnight from better than expected manufacturing and production data. July Manufacturing data increased by 0.9% for the month, the largest monthly rise since 2006 whilst Industrial Production figures for the same month beat forecasts of +0.2% to post a 0.5% gain. The news coincided with a rally in the Euro which also saw better than expected data triggering broad based USD selling that pushed GBP/USD higher from 1.6350 to 1.6580. This morning sees the Pound Sterling open at 1.6490 whilst the rally against the Greenback helped negate another rise in the Australian dollar putting the cross rate at a relatively unchanged 1.9135.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9080 to 1.9200
:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi held onto the 69 cent handle in Asia yesterday and benefited from a large sell off on the Greenback. With global investors dumping U.S dollars in favour of Euro and Sterling the Kiwi dollar traded above 0.6950 for this first time in almost a year. North America returned from the Labour Day holiday with a positive state of mind taking equities 1% higher and the NZD closer to the 70 cent mark posting a high around 0.6980. Today sees the release of REINZ August House Sales data which will give a good indication of the state of consumer's willingness to take on large credit, a key ingredient in the stabilisation of the NZ economy.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6920 to 0.7000
:: Majors: The Euro roared higher in early offshore trade following a better than expected German Trade surplus during July. With the third successive increase in German exports and imports remaining unchanged from the previous month the surplus increased from 12.1 billion EUR to 13.9 billion, well above economist forecasts of a more modest rise. With little in the way of U.S economic data released North American investors returned from the long weekend buoyed with optimism taking equities almost 1% higher and consequently EUR/USD as well. There was enough momentum behind the move to take EUR/USD through 1.4400 to an eventual overnight high near 1.4530, its highest level since mid December last year. The weakness in the Greenback saw USD/JPY track lower to retest 92 which held relatively firm to open this morning marginally higher at 92.35.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: Jul Retail Sales, WBC Sep Consumer Confidence, Jul Home Loans & Jul Investment Lending
- NZD: Aug REINZ House Sales
- USD: Fed''s Beige Book
- GBP: Aug Nationwide Consumer Confidence & Jul Trade Balance
- EUR: Aug German CPI Forecast
- JPY: Jul Prelim Leading Index, Jul Prelim Coincident Index & Aug Prelim Machine Tool Orders
- CAD: Aug Housing Starts