:: Australian Dollar: After holding up relatively well for the majority of the week compared to other major currencies the Aussie dollar finally gave way to a barrage of selling on Friday night falling below the 89 cent handle to a low near 0.8850 against the Greenback. With continued nervousness surrounding Europe commodity prices and equity markets traded lower boosting the appeal of the “safe haven” currencies such as the U.S dollar and Japanese Yen. On the cross rates AUD/EUR continues to make new ground above 0.7100 whilst the AUD/JPY moves in the opposite direction well below its highs at 88.00 in late April exchanging around 81.70 in early morning trade.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8800 to 0.8885
:: Great Britain Pound: The Pound Sterling continued to struggle during Friday’s offshore session exchanging between 1.4500 and 1.4630 before finishing the week at 1.4535 against the Greenback. Demand for the USD increased following a stronger than forecast 0.4% rise in U.S Retail Sales and a 0.8% gain in Industrial Production during April. A sharp decline in the Aussie dollar puts the GBP/AUD cross rate higher this morning having bounced from its lows below 1.6250 on Friday night to exchange at 1.6410 in early trade. With several key U.K economic data releases scheduled this week and continued nervousness surrounding the outlook for Europe the GBP is expected to remain volatile.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6350 to 1.6450
:: New Zealand Dollar: Disappointing N.Z April Retail Sales data released on Friday weighed on the Kiwi dollar heading into the weekend with technical intraday resistance at 0.7150 capping attempts at a comeback. Consumer spending was forecast to have increased by around 1.1% however the 0.5% gains were well below expectations and with REINZ House Sales falling a whopping 16.2% the NZD traded lower. In offshore exchange the downtrend continued as NZD/USD broke below the 71 cent handle and it opens this morning on its lows at 0.7060 following continued demand for the U.S dollar.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.7000 to 0.7085
:: Majors: With no European economic data for guidance on Friday EUR/USD took direction from comments by the ECB, U.S economic data and equity markets heading into the weekend. European Central Bank head Trichet took aim at the way European nations target deficits calling for a “quantum leap” and that “There need to be major improvements to prevent bad behaviour, to ensure effective implementation of the recommendations made by peers and ensure real and effective sanctions in the case of breaches”. With risk appetite still waning U.S equity markets shed around 1.5% on Friday as strong U.S economic data in the form of Retail Sales, Industrial Production and the University of Michigan confidence survey all adding to the allure of the Greenback. EUR/USD continued its recent descent breaking below 1.2500 to finish the week’s trade at 1.2380 with USD/JPY at 92.33.
:: Data Releases: AUD: No Data Expected Today NZD: No Data Expected Today USD: May Empire Manufacturing, Mar TIC Flows & May NAHB Housing Market Index GBP: May Rightmove House Prices EUR: Apr German Wholesale Price Index JPY: Mar Machine Orders & Apr Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index