With less than a week until Election Day, the presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, are scrambling to convince voters in the states that will ultimately decide the election. Trump is holding three rallies Wednesday in Florida, while Clinton has scheduled stops in Arizona and Nevada for events aimed at getting out the early vote.
Polls have tightened as Nov. 8 has neared and after the FBI announced it was reviewing new Clinton-related private emails. While that's largely good news for the Trump campaign that has steadily trailed the former secretary of state, he still has some work to do on the state level.
That work likely begins with Florida, where the GOP nominee almost assuredly has to win to have a realistic path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. That last couple of surveys have shown great news for Trump, with a New York Times/Siena College poll showing him up 4 points, while the Republican firm Remington had him up 4 points, as well. The Real Clear Politics average of polls had him up 1 percentage point Wednesday in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein. The polls-only election forecast from data-driven website FiveThirtyEight has the Sunshine State as effectively a toss-up, giving Clinton a 52.2 percent chance of winning the state.
While Florida may potentially remain a coin-flip of sorts, Ohio has seemingly turned in favor of Trump. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has the GOP nominee up 2.5 points, while the most recent survey from Remington had him up 5 points. ABC's election forecast shifted the Buckeye state yesterday from a toss-up to a Republican-leaning state. Clinton can take solace in an Emerson College poll released Oct. 29 that found the race was all tied up in Ohio and that the FiveThirtyEight forecast still gives her a 40 percent chance of winning the state.
Nevada is also increasingly looking good for Trump, according to recent polling. The Real Clear Politics average has him up a half-point in the state. Remington gave him a 4-point lead last week, but the Emerson College poll just before that had Clinton up 2 points. The early voting figures, however, have looked really good for the Democratic nominee and FiveThirtyEight gave her an about 57 percent chance of winning the state Wednesday.
Iowa, meanwhile, also looks like it could go either way. The Real Clear Politics average has Trump up 1.4 percentage points but the latest poll from Quinnipiac University last week had the race tied. SurveyMonkey had Trump up 5 points last week and FiveThirtyEight gave Trump an about 61 percent chance of winning the state Wednesday.
Clinton might not necessarily care too much if she loses Iowa, as her campaign is working to secure a "blue wall" of sorts in states like Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Michigan. Trump likely needs to flip a state expected to go Democratic in order to get to 270 electoral votes, so Clinton has flooded the states with a last-minute ad buy. The Real Clear Politics averages Wednesday have her up 5.7 points in Wisconsin, 5.2 points in Virginia, 4 points in Colorado, 4.7 points in New Hampshire and 7 points in Michigan.