After launching a new round of quantitative easing in September, this week’s gathering of Fed officials is not expected to produce any new developments on the policy front. Economists expect monetary policy to take a back seat as the focus shifts to the November election and fiscal policy.
Despite the recent drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8 percent and upward revisions to payroll figures for July-August, the outlook for the labor market has not changed meaningfully.
At the most, there is a small chance that the Fed could link its forward-looking guidance to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But, if this does happen at all, it is more likely to occur at the meeting in mid-December.
The advanced U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product report due on Friday is expected to clock in at 1.9 percent, up from 1.3 percent previously. This stronger headline will mask a more disappointing composition with business investment and net exports set to bring a drag. This report is thus fully in line with Fed’s economic assessment.
Investors will also get new home sales on Wednesday, and pending home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday.
In Europe, the main focus will be on the preliminary PMIs and IFO releases. Economists expect October PMIs to stay in the range of the recent months. While Germany’s PMI is likely to recede after an uptick in the previous month, France’s is set to rise after a downward dip.
Meanwhile, the Swedish Riksbank will probably announce that interest rates will remain unchanged at 1.25 percent.
The Diamond Jubilee and appalling weather brought a drag to U.K.’s Q2 GDP, while the Olympics will likely boost the Q3 reading.
Elsewhere, there will be policy rate meetings this week in Sri Lanka, New Zealand and the Philippines. On the data front, Korea’s Q3 GDP data will be released on Friday.
Below are entries on the economic calendar Oct. 22-26. All listed times are EDT.
1:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (FOMC voter) speaks in Illinois.
Belgium -- 2013 budget conclave starts.
E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen speaks at Congress Centre in Hamburg.
Austria -- Central Bank Governor Ewald Nowotny speaks on banking supervision panel in Vienna.
TBA – FOMC first day of 2-day meetings.
10:00 a.m. -- The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October.
Finland -- Central Bank governing council member Erkki Liikanen speaks on reshaping the EU banking sector structure at CEPS event in Brussels.
Italy -- Prime Minister Mario Monti meets Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann in Rome.
E17 -- European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso presents 2013 work program.
E17 – October “flash” consumer confidence.
Canada -- Interest rate announcement for October.
Singapore – September CPI.
France – October business climate index.
Belgium – October business confidence index.
7:00 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Survey results for the week ending Oct. 20.
8:58 a.m. – After reaching a three-year low of 51.1 in September, the Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to come in slightly higher in October, but only back to August’s 51.5. U.S. producers will continue to struggle in the face of a resurgence in the euro zone crisis and further weakness in Asia.
10:00 a.m. – Economists look for the FHFA Home Price Index to rise 0.4 percent in August, consistent with the improvement in other home price indices during the same period. This would translate into a year-over-year increase of 4.4 percent.
10:00 a.m. – New home sales are likely to rise 3.2 percent month-on-month to 385,000 in September, which would represent a resumption of the upward trend seen since the middle of 2011.
2:15 p.m. -- After launching a new round of QE in September, the October FOMC meeting is not expected to produce any new developments on the policy front. Any tweaks to the upcoming FOMC statement will be minor at best. Economists look for the committee to modestly upgrade its description of economic activity, given the improved pace of payroll growth and stabilization in incoming economic data. Beyond that, they expect the Fed’s policy stance and its pledge to keep policy accommodative, even as the economy recovers, to remain.
E17 -- ECB President Mario Draghi addresses members of budget, finance and EU Bundestag committees.
New Zealand – October RBNZ official cash rate.
Vietnam – October CPI.
China – October HSBC “flash” manufacturing PMI index.
Thailand – September custom exports.
France – October “flash” manufacturing / services PMI index.
Sweden – October manufacturing confidence indicator.
E17 – October “flash” manufacturing / services PMI index.
Germany – October IFO business climate index, current assessment index and business expectations index.
Italy – October consumer confidence index.
South Africa – September CPI.
U.K. – October CBI industrial trends.
Mexico – August economic activity index.
Mexico – October first half bi-weekly CPI.
France – September jobseekers net change.
Japan – September corporate services price index.
8:30 a.m. – Initial jobless claims is expected to decline to 370,000 in the week ending Oct. 20, after jumping to 388,000 on seasonal factors.
8:30 a.m. – Powered by a projected rebound in transportation equipment requisitions, durable goods orders likely jumped by 7.1 percent in September, reversing a little over half of the 13.2 percent dive recorded in August. Boeing reported orders of 143 aircraft in September, a big improvement on the one airplane ordered in August. Elsewhere, economists are looking for a decline in the vehicles component but a rebound in the defense component.
10:00 a.m. – Economists look for pending home sales, which track signed contracts on single-family homes, condos, and co-ops, to rise 2.1 percent month-on-month in September, after falling 2.6 percent in August.
11:00 a.m. -- The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index for October.
Sweden -- Riksbank interest rate announcement for October.
Philippines -- BSP policy rate for October.
Singapore – September industrial production.
E17 – September M3 and loans to private sector.
U.K. – Q3 GDP, preliminary release.
Korea – Q3 GDP, preliminary release.
Italy –August retail sales.
New Zealand – September trade balance.
Japan – September nationwide CPI.
8:30 a.m. – The advance release of Q3 GDP will likely show real growth of 1.9 percent at an annualized rate. Relative to the 1.3 percent registered in Q2, economists forecast stronger growth in real consumption and a significant boost from inventory accumulation.
9:55 a.m. – Economists look for the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment to edge down slightly to 83 in the final October release after its upside surprise in the initial report relative to the 78.3 print in September.
Colombia – October overnight lending rate.
E17 -- ECB Executive board member Peter Praet speaks on the effect of tighter regulatory requirements in Milan.
Mexico – October overnight rate.
Thailand – September manufacturing production.
New Zealand – October business confidence.
Germany – GfK consumer confidence index for November.
France – October consumer confidence indicator.
Spain – Q3 unemployment rate.
Switzerland – October KoF leading indicator.
Italy – October business confidence index.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.