PARIS/LONDON - The world faces a surge in energy costs, as well as an increase in planet-warming carbon emissions, unless it agrees a climate change deal soon, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
Arguing strongly for a global deal at the U.N. Climate Change summit in Copenhagen in December, the IEA said use of fossil fuels was bound to rise if policies remained unchanged.
A deal at Copenhagen is vital, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters at the launch of the agency's annual World Energy Outlook. Governments must reach clear agreements to improve efficiency and develop alternative forms of energy, including nuclear, which do not emit so much greenhouse gas.
Many politicians have warned that a meaningful deal is unlikely to be sealed in Copenhagen. Without one, the ratio of energy spending to gross domestic product for the largest consumer countries would double by 2030, the IEA said.
The world would have to spend an extra $500 billion to cut carbon emissions for each year it delayed implementing a deal on global warming, the report said.
The time to act has arrived, it said. As the leading source of greenhouse-gas emissions, energy is at the heart of the problem and so must be integral to the solution.
IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview the world needed to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at 450 ppm of CO2 equivalent.
The world needs to go to the 450 part per million (ppm) target, not only because of climate change but because of growing problems within our energy system and its possible implications again on the economy, Birol said.
Global energy demand would rise by an average of 2.5 percent per year over the next five years if governments made no changes to their existing policies and measures.
FOSSIL FUEL DOMINANCE
Under these circumstances, which the IEA called its reference scenario, world primary energy demand would rise by an average of 1.5 percent per year over the next two decades.
Oil demand, excluding biofuels, would increase by 1 percent per year to 105 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 from 85 million bpd in 2008. This was a slight decrease in its demand forecast, reflecting the impact of the global economic downturn.
Last year the agency, which advises 28 industrialised nations, forecast oil use would reach 106 million bpd by 2030.
But the IEA stressed the trend towards heavier use of hydrocarbons would be unabated without a climate change deal.
Fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of primary energy worldwide in the reference scenario, accounting for more than three-quarters of the overall increase in energy use, it said.
A key driver of energy demand would be inexorable growth in power generation, it said, forecasting in its reference scenario world electricity demand would grow 2.5 percent a year to 2030.
Stressing the need to move away from dependence on fossil fuels, Birol said that without a climate change deal, the European Union's annual energy bill would more than double to $500 billion by 2030, up from $160 billion in the last 30 years.
Oil prices soared to a record of nearly $150 a barrel in July last year. They then collapsed to less than $33 last December, but have since recovered to around $80.
The price collapse, combined with the credit crisis, choked off investment and the Paris-based IEA has warned the oil market could surge back, damaging still fragile economic growth.
Birol said the oil price was likely to reach $100 per barrel by 2015 and $190 by 2030: This means that if we don't do anything to our energy system, we will be in difficulty.
Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris said the IEA had taken a rather cautious approach in the report.
There's an emerging consensus that the demand and supply balance is really going to start to tighten by 2015 which should sound the death knell for cheap oil.
(Writing by Christopher Johnson; editing by William Hardy)