It's been a rough week or so for Republican nominee Donald Trump, as his support in national polls has fallen after video footage revealed his 2005 comments about women that implied sexual assault. The latest swing state polls Tuesday showed Trump trailed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, but he wasn't completely out of reach.
A couple of national polls recently had good news for Clinton. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal bombshell survey found Clinton opened up an 11-point lead in a four-way race after the tape's release. Then a poll from Rasmussen Reports, which has typically found better results for Trump, showed the Republican nominee trailed by five points.
But a new poll Tuesday highlighted a relatively tight race in Pennsylvania, which is a major battleground state worth 20 electoral votes. The survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research found Clinton led by just 4 percentage points. That's a far slimmer margin than other recent polls have found. The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 8.6 percentage points in a four-way race and a CBS News/YouGov poll last week found she led by 8 points. The polls-only election forecast at data-driven website FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a nearly 87 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.
While there was a silver lining for Trump in Pennsylvania, polling in Florida has recently brought some bad news for the GOP nominee. A pre-tape Marist poll found Clinton led Trump by 3 percentage points in a four-way race. A number of recent Florida polls have been trending Clinton's way and the Real Clear Politics average of polls gave her a 2.4 point edge there while the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave her a 70.6 percent chance of winning the state.
Florida has trended toward Clinton, but Ohio seems to remain a tight race. The latest CBS/YouGov survey showed a 4-point lead for Clinton, but Trump trails by just 0.5 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average in a four-way race. The FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast has Clinton's odds of winning Ohio at about 60 percent, just better than a toss-up.
North Carolina remains tight as well. The latest High Point University poll found Clinton was up by just one percentage point in a three-way race. The Real Clear Politics average gave her a 2.6 point edge, while the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave her a 67 percent chance of winning the state.