A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector contracted for the third month in a row in August as new orders fell to their lowest level since November 2010, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Monday.
MILLAN MULRAINE, SENIOR U.S. MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, NEW YORK
I think it's going to sustain what we've seen in a number of other reports. The manufacturing sector may have cooled off significantly -- an indication that it has been deteriorating, while this is just the first of regional indicators, it does a fairly good job of predicting what the others will do... If this is deteriorating, then one will think that others will also have the same magnitude.
Altogether the sentiment has been quite sour, and this falls into that category. We're still somewhat far off from getting into a double dip recession, but it suggests sluggish growth for the next quarter.
STEVE BLITZ, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, ITG, NEW YORK
There is not a lot to say. It speaks for itself. You have a contracting economy in the New York Fed region. In that sense it is certainly a disappointment. It was minus 3.76 last month, so that means that manufacturing got worse, it didn't stabilize.
These numbers month to month can be a little bit volatile so you don't want to overreact.
MICHAEL WOOLFOLK, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BNY MELLON, NEW YORK
It's a negative report. Our expectation was that it would be about flat. We had a supply shock in manufacturing, primarily auto manufacturing, last spring, and the rebound never materialized in the summer. As late as August, we had further deterioration. Today's data suggests producers are continuing to pare back amid a continued downgrade of the economic outlook.
TOM PORCELLI, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK
There is no way to avoid that this is a weak number. On ISM-weight terms, it still deteriorated. This is consistent with the negative tone that has permeated throughout the markets. Clearly we are not starting the new round of manufacturing data on good footing.
VIMOMBI NSHOM, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS
Survey respondents of the Empire State Manufacturing Index reported continued deterioration in the manufacturing sector in August, with the headline general business index falling from -3.76 to -7.72. August is the third month the survey has indicated NY conditions facilitative of manufacturing expansion have lessened. National surveys (ISM Manu) have indicated the same weakness in the industry for June and July, and in three weeks, the results of August business conditions look to report another contraction.