Following the Democratic National Convention this summer, there was some speculation that Georgia had the potential to realign politically and support a Democrat for president for the first time in decades. But Trump has since developed a consistent lead in the state and was leading Hillary Clinton by a slim margin, 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Monmouth University poll released Monday.
“There has been some talk of Georgia becoming part of a demographic realignment in presidential politics. However, Clinton is not quite making the needed inroads among young white voters to take the lead here,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement accompanying the results.
That’s not to say that voters in the state are particularly fond of either candidate: 50 percent of voters hold an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump compared to 33 percent with a favorable view, and 56 percent of Georgians look down on Clinton with 32 percent have a positive view of her.
If it were only up to the African-American population in Georgia, Clinton would win the state handily. She attracts 88 percent of black voters statewide compared to just 4 percent who break for Trump. But, when it comes to white voters, Clinton struggles. Trump leads among the demographic with 88 percent of the vote compared to 4 percent that Clinton receives. He also leads with both men and women by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
An average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics gives Trump a 4 percentage point lead over Clinton in head-to-head matchups. Other forecasters and pollsters also show Clinton’s once small lead has diminished. FiveThirtyEight, which ranks candidates' statistical probability to win a state, gives Trump a 78.4 percent chance to win Georgia compared to just 21.6 percent for Clinton.
Among third party candidates, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was polling at 8 percent while Green Party nominee Jill Stein was not presented as an option at all.
The Monmouth University poll surveyed a random sample of 401 likely voters in Georgia through live calls on land lines and cell phones between Sept. 15 and 18. The poll has a maximum margin of error of 4.9 percent.