Manny Pacquiao is looking to become the first boxer to ever defeat Floyd Mayweather when they finally fight on Saturday. While the undefeated boxer is the decided favorite at all sportsbooks, Pacquiao has the better chance of winning by knockout.
According to Bovada.lv, Pacquiao has 10/1 odds of winning by both knockout and technical knockout. Mayweather’s odds of getting a knockout are 16/1, and his odds of winning by TKO are 12/1.
Mayweather has experienced more success in his career, but he’s done so by being a defensive specialist. Going 47-0, Mayweather has 26 total knockouts. He’s won his last five bouts by decision, and his only knockout in his last eight fights came against Victor Ortiz in September 2011. The knockout of Ortiz was surrounded in controversy, as it came just after the boxers touched gloves when Ortiz had his hands down.
Pacquiao is no longer a knockout specialist, failing to win a fight before the end of the 12th round since 2009. But at his best, Pacquiao is a power puncher who’s won multiple fights without the judges’ help. After losing to Erik Morales in 2005, Pacquiao went on to win eight of his next 11 fights by knockout or referee’s stoppage. Two of those victories came against Miguel Cotto and Oscar De La Hoya, both of whom lasted 12 rounds with Mayweather.
No matter who wins, the fight is expected to go the distance. The odds of the fight ending before 12 rounds have been set at +240, with the chance of the bout going a full 12 rounds placed at -310. Pacquiao was last knocked out in 2012 against Juan Manuel Marquez, though he previously hadn’t lost via knockout since 1999.
Just as the mega-fight isn’t expected to feature a knockout, a knockdown isn’t expected to occur in any of the 12 rounds. A gambler would have to wager $350 to win $100 if they made a bet that Mayweather won’t be knocked down. Betting on Pacquiao to stay on his feet would force a bettor to risk $315 to win $100. Betting on Mayweather to be knocked down pays $265 for someone wagering $100. Wagering $100 on Pacquiao hitting the canvas would pay out $245.
Mayweather has only been officially knocked down once in a fight. He fell to the ground against Carlos Hernandez in 2001, though the knockdown came when he took a knee because he hurt his hand. Mayweather’s glove touched the ground against Zab Judah in 2006, but it was ruled a slip.
Even at 38 years old, Mayweather has proven very difficult to hit. Pacquiao may have problems winning by decision, let alone forcing Mayweather to the canvas at any point in the fight.