NFL Playoff Picks Against The Spread 2017: Predictions, Updated Las Vegas Odds For First-Round Games ATS

Heading into Wild-Card Weekend, every home team is favored by more than a field goal. But if recent history is any indication, the 2017 NFL playoffs could begin with multiple upsets.

Every road team was victorious in the first round of last year’s postseason, and half of this weekend’s home teams won fewer regular-season games than their opponents. Favorites have only covered the spread in three wild-card games over the last three years, though they have won six of the last eight contests straight up.

Below are picks against the spread for every game on Wild-Card Weekend 2017, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Houston Texans

After getting blown out at home in last year’s first-round playoff game, the Texans are in a great position to advance to the divisional round, though it’s not because they’re particularly good. It looks like injuries will force Oakland to play their third-string quarterback, making Connor Cook the first signal caller to make his first ever NFL start in a playoff game. As bad as Brock Osweiler has been this year, he had one of his best games of the season against the Raiders’ defense. Houston is good at home and usually takes care of business against bad teams, going 14-5-1 against the spread in their last 20 games as a favorite.

Prediction ATS: Houston

Detroit Lions (+8) at Seattle Seahawks

The Lions will have a tough time winning in Seattle, but this isn’t the same Seahawks team that has dominated the NFC over the last few years. The injury to Earl Thomas has clearly affected the defense, which has allowed 24.5 points per game since the safety went down for the year with an injury. Russell Wilson remains one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but injuries to Tyler Lockett and C.J. Prosise have left him with few weapons. Detroit is the worst NFC playoff team and their defense has been bad in recent weeks, but Matthew Stafford should make enough plays to keep this game within a touchdown.

Prediction ATS: Detroit

Miami Dolphins (+10) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The betting line might seem high for a playoff game between two teams that were separated by one victory in the regular season, but it could be a long day for the Dolphins in Pittsburgh. Miami doesn’t have the offensive firepower to match the Steelers, especially given how poorly their defense has played against good teams. The Dolphins are 1-5 against winning teams, and they won’t be able to stop the NFL’s best wide receiver and running back tandem. Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite.

Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh

New York Giants (+4.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Giants have won two playoff games at Lambeau Field since 2007, and they’ve got a good chance to get another January victory in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers might be playing better than any quarterback, but New York’s defense looks like the best in the NFL. The Giants forced Rodgers to have his worst passer rating of 2016 in Week 5, and the defense is playing even better three months later. Even with New York’s offensive struggles, Odell Beckham Jr. should do enough against a weak secondary to keep this game within a field goal and potentially help the Giants pull off the upset.

Prediction ATS: New York

Season Record: 131-117-7​