More than one-third of the games on the Week 5 NFL schedule feature an undefeated team, and the point spreads suggest that every 4-0 team will stay undefeated. While a few of the league's top teams could have big wins, there’s a good chance at least one unbeaten team will come up short on Sunday.
The underdogs got the better of the favorites in Week 4, covering the spread in eight out of 15 games. Four favorites lost outright last week, and that number could be higher in Week 5. Six games feature a betting line of three points or less, according to vegasinsider.com.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas casinos.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Houston Texans
The Colts are the only team that has lost against the spread in every game, and even though they might not be the Super Bowl contender that many thought they were, it’s not a trend that’s likely to continue. It’s looking like Andrew Luck will get the start, despite his shoulder injury. Indianapolis has struggled, but Houston has been even worse. Luck ranks last in passer rating, but Ryan Mallett might be the worst starting quarterback in the league.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game could go either way since the Jaguars and Bucs are two of the worst teams in the league. Blake Bortles ranks 28th in passer rating, and Jameis Winston comes in at 31st among 34 quarterbacks. Tampa Bay has the worst home-field advantage in football, failing to win at Raymond James Stadium since 2013. Jacksonville is 4-1 in their last five games against Tampa Bay, and the best bet here is to take the points.
Prediction ATS: Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Rex Ryan has a terrific track record against rookie quarterbacks, going 9-2 against first-year signal callers with the Jets. The Bills were hurt by 17 penalties in their loss to the Giants, and they had a few big plays nullified, something that isn’t likely to repeat itself in Week 5. Marcus Mariota has made some rookie mistakes after he had a perfect passer rating in his regular-season debut, and it won’t be easy for him to have success against Buffalo’s defense.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are probably not a playoff team this season, and they lost their best receiver last week in Steve Smith. With limited offensive weapons, Joe Flacco and Co. will have trouble winning big against their division rival. The Browns are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to Baltimore, according to Odds Shark.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
Washington Redskins (+7.5) at Atlanta Falcons
With the betting line moving from nine points to nearly a touchdown, the Falcons still haven’t gotten the respect they deserve. They played close games in their first two weeks, but they managed to pull out victories, followed by two consecutive double-digit wins. Washington lost by 11 points in their one road game, and Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
After losing three of their first four games, the Chiefs shouldn’t be favored by 9.5 points over any team. Chicago isn’t very good, but they have a competent offense with Jay Cutler at quarterback. The Bears only lost by eight points to Green Bay in the season opener, and they could keep it close in Week 5 against a Kansas City defense that is tied for dead last with Chicago in points allowed.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are clearly not a top team in the NFC, like many experts predicted they would be. Even in their one victory, they had trouble moving the ball, totaling just 231 yards on offense. New Orleans is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games, and they can certainly keep Sunday’s game within a field goal, if not win outright.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
St. Louis Rams (+9) at Green Bay Packers
It’s difficult to bet against Aaron Rodgers these days especially in Green Bay, where he hasn’t thrown an interception since 2012. The Packers have won both of their home games by 10 points, and they’re 4-0 against the spread. Todd Gurley gave the Rams’ offense a boost in their win over the Cardinals, but Nick Foles is too inconsistent, and St. Louis could be in for a long day on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
At least one of the undefeated teams is likely to lose in Week 5, and the Bengals have the best chance to do so. Seattle has been plagued by issues on the offensive line, but Cincinnati has allowed opposing teams to move the ball, ranking 20th in total yards allowed. The Bengals allowed seven field goals in Week 4, and Russell Wilson will find a way to help the Seahawks score enough points. Seattle hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown in two games with Kam Chancellor, and Andy Dalton’s streak of four games with a passer rating of at least 115.9 should come to an end.
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Detroit Lions
The Cardinals have beaten up on losing teams this year, and that will continue on Sunday. Detroit has struggled to score since the second quarter of Week 1, and things don’t get much easier against Arizona’s sixth-ranked scoring defense. The Cardinals have limited opposing quarterbacks to a 72.3 passer rating, and the Lions have the NFL’s worst rushing attack by far. Arizona won’t lose the turnover battle by three for a second straight week, and they only need to win by a field goal to cover the spread.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys aren’t beating the Patriots with Brandon Weeden at quarterback, who has lost 10 straight games as a starter. New England has moved the ball at will in all three games this season, and that will continue after Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys. Dallas continues to be unimpressive at home, where they’ve split five of their last 10 regular-season games.
Prediction ATS: New England
Denver Broncos (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders might be the second-best team in the AFC West, and they’ll give the Broncos a tough test on Sunday. All four of Denver’s games have been close late in the fourth quarter, and the same will be the case in Oakland. Derek Carr has thrown just two interceptions in 2015, and even if the Raiders don’t score a lot of points, they won’t get blown out by the Broncos and Peyton Manning, who has already thrown five interceptions, leading to an 80.8 passer rating.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
San Francisco 49ers (+7) at New York Giants
The Giants are the best team in the NFC East now that Tony Romo is injured, and they are finally closing out games and getting wins. New York has led by at least 10 points in the fourth quarter of all four games, and the 49ers have little chance to make any type of comeback if they fall behind. Colin Kaepernick has been as bad as any quarterback with a 67.7 passer rating, and San Francisco could be looking at a fourth straight loss by double-digits.
Prediction ATS: New York
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at San Diego Chargers
The Steelers don’t have the same dynamic offense without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Michael Vick completed 73 percent of his passes in his first start with Pittsburgh, but he only threw for 124 yards. That won’t be good enough against the Chargers and Philip Rivers, who has more passing yards than any quarterback in the NFL. Vick’s teams are averaging 12 points per game in his last five starts, and San Diego has scored 63 points in two home games this season.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Season Record: 40-22-1