For the first time in the 2016 NFL season, the favorites got the better of the underdogs, going 8-7 against the spread in Week 4. Three teams are favored by at least a touchdown in Week 5, and no betting line is smaller than 2.5 points.
Three teams remain undefeated, and they are all favored in Week 5. The only remaining winless team is the biggest underdog on the schedule, and two one-win teams are favored, according to the latest betting odds.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
Carson Palmer is likely out, meaning Drew Stanton is a four-point favorite on the road, leading a team that’s 1-3. That doesn’t make much sense, considering Stanton might be the worst quarterback that starts in Week 5. Arizona might win because of their defense, but it’s a game that should be decided by three or fewer points.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
Houston Texans (+6) at Minnesota Vikings
Brock Osweiler has been mediocre in his first year with the Texans, and things won’t get better against the NFC’s best defense. Minnesota continues to make good quarterbacks look bad, so Houston will have trouble getting into the end zone even once on Sunday. Sam Bradford has exceeded expectations with the Vikings, and Minnesota could remain undefeated by winning this one comfortably.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
In a matchup of two of the NFL’s worst teams, the best bet is to take the points. Miami couldn’t move the ball against Cincinnati last week, and Tennessee’s defense has been good, allowing more than two offensive touchdowns in just one game. The Titans have already defeated one bad team on the road, and they’ll still cover the spread if they lose by a field goal.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
New England Patriots (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns
With Tom Brady returning from his suspension, this might be the biggest mismatch possible in the NFL. The Patriots are Super Bowl favorites, and the Browns are the only team without a win. New England will look to make a statement in Brady’s first game, especially since they lost last week, and this one should be over by halftime.
Prediction ATS: New England
New York Jets (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets aren’t as bad as they’ve shown in the last two weeks, but it seems to be pretty clear that they aren’t a legitimate playoff contender. The secondary has been awful with an opponents’ passer rating of 116.5, and Pittsburgh’s speedy wide receivers will have a field day on Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick overachieved last year, and his penchant for throwing interceptions won’t do New York any favors in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers haven’t lost against the spread as home favorites in their last five tries.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Washington Redskins (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The line indicates that the Ravens and Redskins are just about equal on a neutral field, but Baltimore is the better team. Washington could be headed for a last-place finish in the NFC East with one of the NFL’s worst defenses, and the Browns are their only opponent that didn’t score at least 27 points. Baltimore nearly beat a tough Oakland team in Week 4, and they should bounce back with a victory in Week 5.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Detroit Lions
The Eagles proved that they are the real deal when they beat the Steelers by 31 points in Week 3. Sunday might feel like a “trap game” for Philadelphia, and that’d be the only logic for picking Detroit. But Philadelphia had no trouble blowing out bad teams in their first two games, and Week 5 should feature another big win for the Eagles after having two weeks to prepare for the Lions.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Chicago Bears (+4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
As bad as the Colts have been, they’ve still been able to score at a decent rate. Indianapolis has scored at least 27 points in three games, and they put up 20 points against the NFL’s best defense. Chicago doesn’t have much of a pass rush with just six sacks on the season, and the easiest way to stop Indianapolis’ offense is to take advantage of their poor offensive line.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Atlanta Falcons (+6) at Denver Broncos
When a top offense comes face-to-face with a top defense, it’s usually the defense that wins the matchup. The Falcons are off to a hot start, but Matt Ryan and Co. have done this in the past, only to quickly come back down to earth. Atlanta was 6-1 last year before losing six straight games. Denver has the NFL’s best defense, and they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as one of the league’s elite teams. They’ll shut down Julio Jones and Atlanta’s offense like they do to every opponent. Ryan is due for one of his multi-interception games, and it could come in a lopsided loss in Week 5.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have played very well since they were shut out in the season opener, and they are the easy choice now that the point spread has moved below a field goal. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald is playing like the best player in football, and he could make things difficult for Tyrod Taylor and Buffalo’s offense. The Bills haven’t been able to maintain success in recent years, suffering nine straight losses in games after they’ve won two in a row. That trend should continue in a tough West Coast trip on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: Los Angeles
San Diego Chargers (+3.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Chargers keep finding ways to lose games, and that should continue in Oakland. After 14 years of losing, the Raiders are finally a playoff contender. With an explosive offense and a defense that should improve as the season moves along, they’ll take care of business against the worst team in the AFC West.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has exceeded expectations this season, but they still haven’t proven themselves against a good team. Their wins have come against teams with a combined 4-8 record, and they lost at home to the 2-2 Giants. Cincinnati’s losses have come against Pittsburgh and Denver, two of the AFC’s top three teams. Dak Prescott is due to have a bad game, and Dez Bryant won’t be close to being completely healthy, even if he plays.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
New York Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
This is the type of game that Eli Manning and the Giants usually win, or at the very least keep close. New York is 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as underdogs of seven points or more. They nearly beat the Patriots and Panthers a year ago when they were heavy underdogs, and the Giants’ offense could have a breakout performance against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.
Prediction ATS: New York
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (N/A) at Carolina Panthers
There is no betting line at most sportsbooks because of the injury to Cam Newton. International Business Times will provide a prediction when a point spread is made.
Season Record: 32-31