With so much parody and poor play over the first six weeks of the 2016 NFL season, underdogs keep covering the majority of betting lines. Favorites were able to cover the spread in just five of 15 Week 6 games, and six underdogs won outright.
In Week 7, four teams are favored by at least a touchdown, including one road team. Following injuries to the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Eddie Lacy, a few point spreads have seen noticeable changes since the conclusion of last week’s games.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 7, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
Chicago was a safer pick when they were nine-point underdogs earlier in the week, but they have a good chance to keep Thursday’s game within a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense has been mediocre for a year, and it probably won’t get any better now that Lacy is injured, leaving the Packers without much of a running game. Green Bay should win, but the Bears could be within striking distance throughout the game.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
New York Giants (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
New York’s offense finally showed some signs of life in Week 6. The team tied its season with 27 points, doing so against Baltimore, which ranks third in total defense. Despite having a few talented players, the Rams’ defense has been disappointing, allowing at least 28 points in half of their games. Odell Beckham Jr. appears to have broken out of his funk, and he could score a few touchdowns in a Giants victory.
Prediction ATS: New York
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Vikings are the NFC’s best team, but they aren’t going to remain undefeated against the spread all season long. Despite suffering consecutive road losses, Philadelphia is still a playoff contender, and they could bounce back win a win when they return home. Sam Bradford is playing at an unsustainable pace with a 109.8 passer rating, and because they have the NFL’s worst rushing attack, Minnesota could have a hard time overcoming a poor performance from the quarterback. Having allowed 13 total points in two home games, the Eagles could force their former quarterback to have one of his worst games of 2016.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
New Orleans Saints (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Saints are 2-3, but they could just as easily have four wins in 2016. Scoring at least 32 points in all but one game, New Orleans can put up points against just about every team. The Saints can’t stop anyone, and it’s why they’re going to miss the playoffs, but Sunday’s contest should be a high-scoring affair that’s decided in the fourth quarter. Kansas City needed overtime to beat San Diego and their high-powered offense in the Chiefs’ home opener, and Week 7 could produce a similar result.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Washington Redskins (+1.5) at Detroit Lions
The Redskins are back to playing like the team that won the NFC East in 2015. Since losing consecutive games to first-place teams, Washington has won four in a row, including two road contests. The Redskins are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games, and they should put up a lot of points against a Detroit defense that just gave up four touchdowns to the Rams.
Prediction ATS: Washington
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
There’s no debating that the Browns are the worst team in football, and the gap between them and the Bengals is sizeable. Cincinnati is the league’s best two-win team, having suffered all of their losses to first-place teams. The Bengals are usually among the NFL’s best home teams, and they take advantage of lesser competition. Cincinnati has beaten the Browns by at least 21 points in their last three meetings, and Sunday should be another blowout.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins
One of the NFL’s hottest teams, the Bills usually play well against the Dolphins, even when Buffalo isn’t particularly good. Going 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings with Miami, the Bills, who look like a legitimate playoff contender, should be able to continue that trend. Buffalo has the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack, and only one team has given up more yards on the ground than the Dolphins, spelling trouble for Miami.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Oakland Raiders (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Winning on the road against bad teams hasn’t proven to be a problem for the Raiders. They’ve already won in New Orleans, Tennessee and Baltimore, and Jacksonville is worse than all of those teams. The Jaguars’ offense seems to only thrive in garbage time, ranking 28th in total yards, and they won’t be able to keep up with the Raiders, who shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans are just as good as the Colts, if not better, making them an easy pick as favorites of less than a field goal. Tennessee has the clear edge on defense, ranking ninth in yards allowed, whereas Indianapolis ranks 30th. Only four teams have more sacks than the Titans, and they should be able to put pressure on Andrew Luck, who’s been sacked more than any other quarterback.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Baltimore Ravens (PK) at New York Jets
Some sportsbooks have taken this game off the board because of Joe Flacco's shoulder injury. The quarterback hopes to play, and if he does, he gives the Ravens a distinct quarterback advantage against Geno Smith and the Jets. New York's pass defense has been so bad in 2016 that it might not matter who's under center for Baltimore.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
San Diego Chargers (+6.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Much like the Saints, the Chargers score a ton of points and are in every game. Facing off with the NFL’s top-ranked offense, this game could be decided by which team has the ball last. All of San Diego’s four losses have been decided in the final two minutes, and they proved something with a win against the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 6.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco might be the NFL’s worst one-win team, but the Buccaneers shouldn’t be favored by two points on the road. The betting line indicates that the 49ers would be eight-point underdogs in Tampa Bay, but the Bucs probably shouldn’t be giving any team eight points, no matter where the game is played. The 49ers have been pretty competitive in San Francisco, where the Bucs have lost nine of their last 10 matchups.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
New England Patriots (-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots should win in Pittsburgh now that Roethlisberger is out, but that doesn’t mean the Steelers won’t be competitive. Pittsburgh was victorious in a similar situation last year when backup quarterback Landry Jones and the Steelers handed the Cardinals one of their three losses on the season. Pittsburgh just lost in Miami, but they are a much different team at home, where they have won three games by an average of more than 18 points. New England is 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 games as road favorites.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle is the class of the NFC West, and they could take a big step towards winning the division on Sunday night. Carson Palmer has struggled against the Seahawks in recent years, and that might continue in Week 7. Palmer isn’t playing at the same level he reached last season, and Seattle has the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defense. Having had some disastrous games against top defenses in his last few starts, Palmer could struggle mightily on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Houston Texans (+7) at Denver Broncos
The Texans are probably going to be the worst team that makes the playoffs in 2016, sitting atop the NFL’s worst division. Houston's defense isn’t the same without J.J. Watt, and Brock Osweiler has proven to be one of the league’s most overpaid quarterbacks. Even in their two losses, Denver has allowed just 22 points per game when facing two of the NFL’s top three scoring teams. Trevor Siemian and the Broncos’ offense won’t have to do much to get Denver back in the win column.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Season Record: 45-45-2