The U.S. economy could benefit by as much as $131 billion annually from the Trans-Pacific Partnership after 2030, according to a think tank study released Monday that also noted any delay in the scheme could cost $77 billion a year. The Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington also found that U.S. exports would be boosted by $357 billion annually as part of the deal, which was signed in October by the U.S. and 11 other Pacific Rim countries.
"The present analysis does indicate that the benefits of the TPP to the U.S. economy will greatly outweigh adjustment costs, and that economywide price and employment consequences will be limited," Peterson said in the report, which noted that exports among all TPP nations would hit $1.025 trillion annually.
The economics think tank took an evenhanded take on the future of jobs in the U.S., finding that that there would be no net change in employment, but it did say in the report that the allocation of jobs would shift based on priorities. While job losses in some sectors would be offset by gains in others, some 50,000 workers might need to find new jobs in any given year.
— Peterson Institute (@PIIE_com) January 25, 2016
Congress has yet to vote on the trade deal, which had been seven years in the making before being agreed upon in October. Without congressional support, it’s thought that the deal could fail. Opponents of the pact in Congress are concerned about its potential effect on U.S. manufacturing plants, especially those that could be undercut by low-cost imports from the 11 other partner countries, such as auto parts, steel and apparel.
U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said in a statement that the Peterson study "shows that TPP will raise wages for American workers, grow our economy, and help farmers and businesses export more 'Made in America' products," he told Reuters.
China was omitted from the negotiations, although it might be open to joining at some point, according to a Hill report.