Monday Night Football Week 8: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs were the biggest surprise of the NFL’s first five weeks, going undefeated and looking like the best team in football. Between the early-season struggles of the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, as well as the Denver Broncos searching for their offense, Kansas City had a chance to distance themselves from the rest of the division.

That was probably too much to ask of the reigning AFC West champs, who’ve come back to earth and lost two difficult games. Their lead over the Broncos is just two games in Week 8, and it makes the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the two rivals all the more important.

Even with Kansas City playing like one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, Denver is a win away from sitting just one game out of first place. A victory at Arrowhead Stadium would give the Broncos a tiebreaker over the Chiefs, at least for now, with a Week 17 matchup against Kansas City looming in Week 17.

If Denver is going to win in Kansas City, it’s going to be on the strength of their defense. That’s how the Broncos won the Super Bowl two years ago and how they finished last season above .500.

It’s also the reason why the Broncos have three wins in 2017. Denver ranks first in yards allowed, and only the Steelers give up fewer yards per play.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is tied for the AFC’s best record because they can score with anyone.

The Chiefs are first in yards per play and second with 29.6 points per game. Alex Smith is the league’s highest-rated passer and Kareem Hunt is the No.1 rusher. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the only teammates that both rank in the top 15 in receptions.

Can the Chiefs' offense continue to have the same kind of success that they’ve had all year against the Broncos? There’s reason to believe Kansas City will struggle to move the ball Monday night.

The Chiefs have taken advantage of poor defenses. Three of Kansas City’s opponents (New England, Oakland, Philadelphia) rank in the bottom-eight in yards allowed per play, and another (Washington) ranks 20th. The one time the Chiefs faced a team that is better than 14th in opponents’ yards per play, Kansas City had their worst offensive game of the season, scoring just 13 points in a loss at home to the Steelers.

The same argument can’t be made about Denver’s defense, especially in the area that the unit excels the most. The Broncos have been absolutely dominant against the run while facing some of the league’s most recognizable running backs.

Melvin Gordon wasn’t able to rush for more than 54 yards against the Broncos in either of his two tries. Ezekiel Elliott had nine rushes for eight yards in Denver, and Marshawn Lynch was held to 12 yards on nine carries. LeSean McCoy mustered just 21 yards on 14 attempts at home against the Broncos. Orleans Darkwa is the only outlier on the list, posting his first 100-yard game ever when the Giants visited Denver.

Stopping the opposing team’s top offensive playmaker hasn’t always been enough to put the Broncos in the win column. Denver is on the verge of going under .500 because their offense has oftentimes made it seem as if they were facing their own defense.

It feels like a long time—six weeks to be exact— since there was optimism that Trevor Siemian and Denver’s offense might take a leap forward in 2017. The Broncos scored 42 points in their Week 2 win over the Dallas Cowboys, and they haven’t come close to playing like that in any of their last four games.

The Broncos have scored 16 points or fewer in each of those four contests, culminating with a 21-0 loss in Los Angeles last week. Injuries haven’t helped, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is likely to be sidelined, once again, with an ankle injury.

“I was pissed off,” Sanders said on Orange and Blue Radio Wednesday when talking about watching the team’s Week 7 loss. “What I saw was an offense that couldn’t move the ball, kept hurting themselves, kept turning the ball over. You know it was just making me madder and madder and madder.

“We’ve got get our stuff together, and it starts today,” Sanders added.

Maybe it will start in Week 8 when Denver faces a Kansas City defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per play. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been the same without safety Eric Berry, and they’ve forced just three turnovers in the last four games.

Siemian has thrown for seven touchdowns and just two interceptions in Denver’s three wins. He has one touchdown and five picks in the Broncos’ three losses.

Kansas City is a 7.5-point favorite, per the betting odds at OddsShark, and the over/under is 43. Denver’s defense should keep it close, but expecting Siemian and the offense to get a late score might be too much to ask.

Prediction: Kansas City over Denver, 20-17