With injuries to Patrick Mahomes and a shaky defense, the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t quite lived up to expectations in the 2019 NFL season. Despite their struggles, the team has a chance to essentially lock up another AFC West championship in Week 13 when they host the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland is Kansas City’s only real threat in the division, trailing the Chiefs by a game for first place. Because Kansas City already won in Oakland earlier this season, a victory Sunday afternoon would give the Chiefs a two-game lead over the Raiders and the AFC West tiebreaker.

The Chiefs routed the Raiders 28-10 in Week 2. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium, according to OddsShark. The total is 51.5.

The betting line would have been closer to a touchdown if the two teams met a week ago. While the Chiefs had their bye week, the Raiders suffered their worst defeat of the season. Oakland wasn’t competitive against the New York Jets, losing 34-3 on the road. 

Derek Carr posted his worst passer rating of the season, completing 15 of 27 passes for just 127 yards and an interception. The Raiders had averaged 25.3 points over their previous seven games before failing to reach the end zone at MetLife Stadium.

The Week 12 game should prove to be an anomaly for one of the league’s best offenses. Oakland ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per play. Carr is ninth in passer rating and third in completion percentage. Rookie Josh Jacobs is fifth in rushing yards.

Kansas City doesn’t crack the top 20 in total defense or opponents’ yards per play. The Chiefs are 30th against the run. The best thing the defense does is rush the passer, but no team has allowed fewer quarterback hits than the Raiders. 

Expect Carr and Oakland’s offense to perform much better than they did in their Week 2 meeting with Kansas City.

Mahomes put up his usual, eye-popping numbers in that game with 443 passing yards, 10.1 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 14, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Photo: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Raiders’ defense hasn’t been any better than that of the Chiefs. Only the Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears, who have two of the league’s five worst scoring offenses, have failed to put up at least 24 points against Oakland.

Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson took control of the MVP race when Mahomes was sidelined with a knee injury. It’s easy to forget just how good the 2018 NFL MVP is when he’s under center and healthy. 

Despite missing close to three full games, Mahomes is 10th in passing yards and tied for eighth in touchdowns. His 110.0 passer rating is good for fifth in the league. 

Kansas City has beaten Oakland in nine of their last 10 meetings. 

Mahomes will remind everyone that he’s the NFL’s best quarterback when the Chiefs win a fun, high-scoring game that puts the AFC West race to bed. 

Prediction: Kansas City over Oakland, 30-24