Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors Game 7: Prediction, Odds For 2019 NBA Playoff Clincher

The second-round series between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers all comes down to Sunday night. The winner of Game 7 in Canada will keep their championship hopes alive, while the loser will suffer a disappointing end to their playoff run and potentially cost themselves a chance to keep their core intact beyond this season.

Between the impending free agencies of Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors looking more vulnerable than ever, the stakes for Sunday's clincher couldn't be higher.

The series has largely been unpredictable from night to night. Neither team has had more than a one-game advantage at any point in the series. Both teams have stolen one game on the road.

Toronto is a six-point favorite at home, according to the betting line at OddsShark. The fact that the Raptors are playing at home and have the most reliable star in the series could be what ultimately sends them on to the next round.

It is extremely difficult for teams to win a Game 7 on the road. When the Denver Nuggets defeated the San Antonio Spurs in the only Game 7 of the first round, home teams improved their overall record in such contests to 105-28.

Road teams in NBA history have won Game 7 just 21 percent of the time, and this 76ers' team hasn't exactly looked like they have what it takes to overcome those odds.

Philadelphia had a losing record on the road in the regular season. They've been blown out twice in Toronto this series.

Joel Embiid has yet to play well in Toronto. It's hard to believe the 76ers can pull off the upset if their best player doesn't perform like a star when they need him the most.

The 76ers took control of the series when Embiid put up 33 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks in a Game 3 victory. That version of Embiid hasn't been seen since. He's been inconsistent while dealing with a knee injury and an illness, though Philadelphia has looked like a much better team when the big man is performing like an All-Star.

In Philadelphia's 112-101 Game 6 victory, the 76ers were an incredible plus-40 with Embiid on the court. He only scored 17 points on five-of-14 shooting, but he made his presence felt on both ends of the court.

Leonard had arguably his worst game of the series in Thursday's loss. He still scored 29 points on 20 field-goal attempts while grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out five assists.

Toronto knows Leonard will perform like a superstar in Game 7. He's done it all postseason long. Ever since he won the 2014 NBA Finals MVP award, Leonard has been one of the best big-game players in NBA history.

Leonard is averaging 31.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists per game with 56.3 percent shooting in the 2019 playoffs. He’s all but certain to maintain that level of play Sunday.

Who knows what to expect from Embiid? Simple math would suggest that he's more likely to look average than he is to be a game-changer, based on what he's done the entire postseason.

What about Ben Simmons? He's much more likely to put up a stinker. Game 6 was really the only time he's been effective all series long.

The 76ers can count on Butler. He's not afraid to take big shots and has been the team's leading scorer in the playoffs. He just can't quite reach the level that Leonard is currently on.

There are plenty of questions surrounding Toronto's secondary scorers, which is why Game 7 could go either way. Pascal Siakam has played well, for the most part. Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry and Danny Green are all wild cards. The Raptors' bench has barely contributed.

That's where home-court advantage comes into play. It's often said that role players are much better at home, and that's proven to be the case for Toronto.

During the playoffs, Siakam is averaging 23.7 points and 7.8 rebounds per game at home compared to 19.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game on the road. Lowry goes from 14.0 points on 46.2 percent shooting at home to 11.0 points on 38.5 percent shooting on the road. Gasol’s numbers are better in Toronto than they are elsewhere.

As a team, the Raptors are shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from three-point range at Scotiabank Arena. Those numbers drop to 45.8 percent from the field and 32.0 percent from three on the road.

The Raptors got plenty of open looks in Game 6. They just didn’t fall. Those same shots should go in Sunday night.

Philadelphia hasn’t shown much resiliency when things have gotten tough. They folded in both Game 1 and Game 5 at Toronto when the Raptors converted their outside shots and jumped out to an early lead. Embiid continued to look sicker as Toronto’s lead increased. Simmons’ passiveness appeared to coincide with the 76ers’ deficit.

Toronto is the more reliable team with a more reliable superstar. The home team is historically the more reliable bet in Game 7, making the Raptors the safest pick to win the series.

Game 7 Prediction: Toronto over Philadelphia, 105-94