Donald Trump After Tonight's GOP Debate: Will The Unlikely Lead Candidate Stay On Top?

Donald Trump is on top of the world. Whether it's in a sky-high penthouse or atop recent polls, it seems like the real estate tycoon can do no wrong -- depsite several controversies. But now it's time for him to stack up next to the other candidates. The first Republican Party presidential debate airs Thursday on Fox at 9 p.m. EDT. Trump is leading a crowded field, but will the competition close the gap after the debate?

Unlike this election cycle, the 2012 GOP crowd had no clear favorites at the time of the first debate. A CNN and Opinion Research Corporation survey published the day of the first debate in May 2011 showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee narrowly leading the field with 16 percent of likely Republican or Independent voters. Eventual GOP candidate Mitt Romney was in third place, while Trump was in second place.

Huckabee would ultimately decide not to run a 2012 presidential campaign, and, as Romney only officially announced his entry on June 2, 2011, he was not involved in the first GOP debate. There were just five candidates: Tea Party activist Herman Cain, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

While the first debate was not quite a lineup worthy of prime time, the second debate had all of the eventual top candidates. Romney became the favorite to win the GOP nomination. After the second GOP debate on June 13, 2011, a Rasmussen phone survey showed Romney with a commanding lead. Of the 1,000 likely Republican primary voters, 33 percent said they would select Romney. Michele Bachmann was in second place with 19 percent, followed by Cain at 10 percent.

The 2008 GOP debates were more interesting. The first, held May 3, 2007, had all the top candidates. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led former Senator John McCain -- 33 percent to 23 percent, respectively -- in a Pew Research poll published on March 29, 2007.

After the first 2008 GOP debate, Giuliani maintained his lead over McCain in a USA Today-Gallop poll and a CNN survey conducted from May 4 to May 7. McCain would drop to third place in several polls -- falling behind Giuliani and Huckabee -- before staging a solid comeback in the primaries and ultimately winning the GOP nomination.

History indicates Trump will likely continue ahead following Thursday's debate, but other candidates can look back at the 2008 race and hope for a rally.