The Real Reason Russia's Air Force, World's Second Biggest, Is Missing Over Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its second week, but Kremlin continues to catch the U.S. and military watchers off guard with its unexpected moves. But, what has the U.S. most perplexed is why Russia has not employed its strong air force to dominate Ukraine's skies.

Tagged the world's second-biggest, Russia's formidable Air Force outmatches Ukraine in every manner. Reports quoting strategic intelligence research service Janes claim the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) comprises 132 bombers versus none for Ukraine, 832 fighter jets against 86 for Ukraine, and 358 transport planes against 63 for Kyiv. Except for drones, which Ukraine has 66 and Russia 25, the numbers show a "crushing asymmetry" in favor of the Kremlin.

But, the Russian Aerospace Forces are notoriously missing in the initial stages of the military action, contrary to the U.S. intelligence prediction of a blistering assault.

"They're not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots," a senior U.S. defense official told Reuters. This is when Ukraine's air force is still flying and its air defenses are deemed to be viable. Analysts had expected the Russian Air Force to immobilize Ukraine's air force and air defenses.

Many explanations are put forward. According to Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think-tank in London, the prominent one is the limited quantities of air-delivered precision-guided munitions (PGMs) available to most VKS fighter units.

An article titled "The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force" said only the Su-34 fleet has regularly made use of PGMs, and even these specialist strike aircraft have regularly resorted to unguided bomb and rocket attacks.

The report, penned by analyst Justin Bronk, claims that running joint engagement zones in which combat aircraft and SAM systems can engage enemy forces simultaneously in a complex environment is hard.

"It requires close inter-service cooperation, excellent communications and regular training to master. So far, Russian forces have shown extremely poor coordination across the board, from basic logistics tasks, to coordination of airborne assaults with ground forces activity and arranging air defense cover for columns on the move," Bronk added.

Other theories doing rounds include President Vladimir Putin's war strategy, which hinged on the assumption that Ukrainian defenses would easily fold, allowing Russian forces to capture Kyiv and crush its forces in the east and south without having to achieve air superiority.

"The lacking efficacy of the Russian air force is one of the surprising elements of this conflict," former French army colonel Michel Goya was quoted by news outlets. He believes the Russian air force is still a far cry from "the precision, the flexibility and the inter-operability of Western air forces."

The fear of friendly-fire incidents and the Russian pilots' limited total flying hours on their jet may also have contributed.

That said, there is a strong possibility that the 300 Russian fighter planes deployed near combat zones may soon join the combat.