Will Global Travel Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels? Forecast Predicts A Return In 2024

Global air travel is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2024, a forecast from the International Air Transport Association said.

The forecast indicated that recovery in short-haul travel will happen faster than long-haul travel, with global passenger count expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019. This is a decrease from the previous April forecast of 46%. June load factors also set an all-time low for the month at 57.6%.

The International Air Transport Association cited a number of factors for the travel decline, including the continued spread of the coronavirus in the U.S., which accounts for about 40% of global air travel, as well as in other countries that have restricted travel during the pandemic.

The IATA also suggested that corporate travel would be reduced as companies look to constrain their budgets until the economy improves. Corporate travel has also declined as the need for in-person meetings has dropped as substitutes are made through virtual meeting technologies.

There is also a weak consumer confidence brewing as travelers face concerns over job security and rising unemployment, which has pushed friend and family visits to the wayside until the pandemic subsides. Consumers are also concerned about catching COVID-19, which IATA said as many as 55% of respondents to its June passenger survey said they don’t plan to travel in 2020.

Going forward, IATA said it expects passenger numbers to rise by 62% in 2021 but to be down 30% compared to 2019. Faster travel recovery could come with a successful vaccine, but the association maintained its baseline numbers.

“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO, said in a statement. “What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed.

“Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the U.K.’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. And in many parts of the world, infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy,” he added.

Boeing, which reported a net loss of $2.49 billion on Wednesday, warned employees about the aviation sector in a letter, with President and CEO Dave Calhoun saying, “ Though some fliers are returning slowly to the air, their numbers remain far lower than 2019, with airline revenues likewise reduced. This pressure on our commercial customers means they are delaying jet purchases, slowing deliveries, deferring elective maintenance, retiring older aircraft and reducing [spending].”

Calhoun went on to say that it will take about three years for the airlines to return to 2019 passenger levels – a year shy of what the IATA has suggested with their forecast.