2012 Presidential-Election Swing States Continue Their Swinging Ways

By J.J. McGrath | October 14 2012 11:37 PM

With the U.S. presidential election a little more than three weeks away, 11 of 50 states -- representing 146 Electoral College votes -- are considered toss-ups by the nonpartisan RealClearPolitics this red, white, and blue Sunday.

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These states (and their electoral votes) are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4).

Here’s the lowdown on what’s up with presidential-election polls in these swing states this weekend:

Florida

Republican challenger Mitt Romney is leading Democratic incumbent Barack Obama in Florida by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent, according to Public Policy Polling Sunday.

PPP noted Obama led Romney by 4 percentage points, 50 percent to 46 percent, late last month, and it pointed out the shift is largely attributable to independent voters switching their allegiances, mainly on the basis of the U.S. economy.

It reported the primary reason for the challenger’s rise and the incumbent’s fall in the Sunshine State most likely centers on their respective performances during the first presidential debate on Oct. 3.

PPP polled 791 likely voters Oct. 12-14, and the survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, so, statistically speaking, the state continues to be a toss-up.

Ohio

In sharp contrast to Florida, Obama is leading Romney in Ohio by 5 percentage points, 51 percent to 46 percent, PPP reported Saturday.

These figures are comparable with the numbers PPP found in the Buckeye State two weeks ago, when the Democrat led the Republican by 4 percentage points, 49 percent to 45 percent.

PPP contended the key finding in the latest poll related to early voters. It reported 19 percent of the survey’s respondents said they had already cast their ballots -- and those respondents said they went for the incumbent over the challenger by an amazing margin of 76 percent to 24 percent.

Unlike Americans elsewhere, Ohioans appeared unswayed by the first presidential debate.

PPP polled 880 likely voters Oct. 12-13, and the survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, so, statistically speaking, the state remains a toss-up. However, it seems close to jettisoning its swing-state status -- this year, anyway.

North Carolina

Romney is leading Obama in North Carolina by 2 percentage points, 49 percent to 47 percent, PPP said Sunday.

PPP noted the candidates were tied in the Tar Heel State at 48 percent two weeks ago. It pointed out that the main reason for Romney’s slight rise and Obama’s slight fall most likely centers on the first presidential debate.

PPP polled 1,084 likely voters Oct. 12-14, and the survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, so, statistically speaking, the state is still a toss-up.