Analysts Cut Adobe Profit View

At least three brokerages have cut the profit forecasts of Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE), a day after the software company reduced its second quarter outlook by $50 million to account for the impact of the crisis in Japan.

Japan is the company's second-largest country in terms of revenue contribution.

Tuesday the San Jose, California-based Adobe reported quarterly earnings of $234.6 million, or 46 cents per share, up from $127.2 million, or 24 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose 20 percent to $1.03 billion.

Adobe also guided second quarter revenues in the range of $970 million to $1.02 billion and pro forma earnings of 47 cents to 54 cents a share. Wall Street expects Adobe to earn 56 cents a share on revenue of $1.03 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

FBR Capital Markets analyst David Hilal cut his revenue and pro forma earnings estimates for the second quarter saying We find the $50 million revenue reduction to be prudent and generally in line with our expectation.

The analyst cut the second quarter revenue and pro forma EPS estimates to $1.01 billion and 53 cents per share from $1.03 billion and 57 cents per share.

Hilal, who also reduced his fiscal 2011 estimate, has a market perform rating and $33 price target on Adobe stock. The analyst now expects 2011 pro forma earnings of $2.24 a share on revenue of $4.13 billion, compared to his prior view of $2.32 a share on revenue of$4.20 billion.

Oppenheimer analyst Brad Reback also trimmed his fiscal 2011 view on Adobe saying software companies with heavy exposure to Japan are potentially at risk.

While Adobe's core businesses continue to improve and it is making positive strides in de-leveraging from product cycles (announced plans to release a mid-cycle CS), we feel these dynamics will likely be overshadowed near term given the heavy exposure and uncertainty surrounding Japan, the analyst wrote in a note to clients.

Reback, who has a perform rating on Adobe stock, now expects fiscal 2011 earnings of $2.27 per share on revenue of $4.17 billion versus prior estimate of $2.29 per share on revenue of $4.19 billion.

... with limited margin expansion on the horizon and a modest revenue growth profile, we don't anticipate material multiple expansion in the short run, Reback added.

Meanwhile, ThinkEquity analyst Daniel Cummins, who has a hold rating and $32 price target on Adobe stock, slashed his fiscal 2011 earnings forecast by 10 cents to $2.25 per share and revenue by $200 million to $4.18 billion.

In the company's conference call remarks, we sensed that a potential $50 million hit to revenue represents a worst case scenario in Japan, a loss or delay of roughly 30 percent of country business, Cummins wrote.

Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $2.28 a share on revenue of $4.16 billion for fiscal 2011.

Shares of Adobe were down $2.01, or 6 percent, to $30.87 in Wednesday late morning trade on Nasdaq.