Analysts Expect Decent September Retail Sales As Chains Reveal Stronger Holiday Hiring Plans

By Angelo Young | October 02 2012 6:05 AM

Market analysts are signaling expectations for a decent if not spectacular monthly same-store sales report later this week as Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) disclosed plans to hire more seasonal workers than last year for the all-important American year-end holiday shopping spree.

Reuters

Shoppers run into a Target store as the doors are opened to shop on Black Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving, a major shopping day iun the United States -- in Lanesborough, Massachusetts November 26, 2010. The most important shopping season in an economy that is heavily reliant on consumer spending begins in mid-September. Hiring for the season peaks at about two weeks before Halloween.

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“Expect a solid September driven by strength in the first half of the month,” Roxanne Meyer of UBS Securities said in a note on Monday.

Nomura Equity Research also predicts that September, which is a harbinger for the last three months of the year, to be reasonably strong for retail.

“Following a strong August, trends in general seem slightly less robust in September, but nothing to worry about as we think about the state of the consumer headed into holiday,” Nomura said in a client note.

Some of the nation’s largest retail chains reported better-than-expected same-store sales last month. For example, San Francisco-based clothing chain The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) reported 9 percent growth from last year, and Macy’s registered 5.5 percent growth over August 2011. The same-store sales figure is a good measure of retail market performance because it excludes stores open less than a year, which typically outperform established outlets due to their novelty factor.

Research firm ShopperTrak predicted that U.S. retail sales should rise 3.3 percent this holiday season, according to Reuters, which also reported that retail consulting firm Kurt Salmon expects a 4.2 percent increase in sales.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati-based Macy’s announced on Monday it is hiring 80,000 seasonal employees this year, up from last year, when it hired 78,000.

So far, the following retail companies have given their seasonal hiring figures:

Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS) of Menomonee Falls, Wi., says it’s hiring 58,400 seasonal employees, or about 10 percent more than it hired in 2011. Kohl’s also opened a dozen new stores in 10 states last week, creating about 1,500 jobs and upping the number of its showrooms to 1,146.

Toys R Us Ltd. said it’s hiring 45,000 holiday workers, compared to 40,000 last year.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) of Bentonville, Ark., says it’s hiring about the same number as last year -- 50,000 -- but that it is also upping the number of available hours for all of its employees.

Plano, Tx.-based J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) said it will hire about 40,000 workers to cover the busy season, up from 35,000 last year.Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) of Richfield, Minn., says it will hire about 14,000 workers, slightly fewer than last year, and nearly half of what it hired in 2010.