China Growth Rate for 2012 Can be Less Than 8 Percent

By Bhaskar Prasad: Subscribe to Bhaskar's

February 23, 2012 1:25 AM EST

A target of less than 8 percent growth for China could be set by Premier Wen Jiabao amid the risk of financial instability, according to a report.

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Bloomberg has reported that in his statement to the National People's Congress in Beijing March 5, the Chinese Premier will aim for a slower growth rate.

In a survey involving 15 economists, the median estimate for economic growth was 7.5 percent compared with an 8 percent rate maintained from 2005 to 2011.

The deceleration of the property investment, happening at an astonishingly faster than expected rate, is seriously impairing the economy of the country. China's January home prices recorded their worst performance in at least a year, with none of the 70 cities monitored by the government posting gains.

Faced with a slowing economy and persistent inflationary pressures, China is in a bind regarding its policies for the property sector. Income from land sales and property transaction-related fees has traditionally been a source of revenue for local governments in China.

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Falling property prices that are feeding into slowing investment will in turn affect headline inflation readings.

China's annual inflation rate hit 4.5 percent in January, which is the highest level in three months, according to the official data released earlier. The inflation rate in December was 4.1 percent.

The continuing crisis in Europe and weakness in the U.S. are hurting demands for Chinese exports, which form the key driver of the country's economy.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund had warned that an escalation of Europe's debt crisis could reduce China's economic growth by half for this year.

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