As strongly as gold bullion prices have risen lately, the most robust surge for gold investors will be in gold mining company stocks, not bullion, a CIBC analyst said.
Tom Wallis cited four reasons why the pendulum has swung in favor of equities instead of bullion, even though he is forecasting a 2013 gold price of $2,200 per ounce.
Current gold movements are often compared with the bubble that occurred at the end of the 1970s, he wrote in a report Thursday. We disagree and find the conditions are entirely different driving the effects but there may be lessons to be gained from the past.
One reason has to do with cash flow multiples, which are almost at a historical low when compared to the late 1970s, which we believe is the most analogous period to current happenings.
Another reason concerns the dominant gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).
If guidance is tightened on ownership of the GLD, there could be flow out of this bullion-based vehicle into gold equities in order to maintain exposure to the sector, he wrote.
Thirdly, Wallis says gold stocks are almost trading at the same net asset value multiples as base metal shares, which has never happened in the past and while some may argue differently, we believe gold deserves special premiums because of its monetary affiliations.
Lastly, lag effects associated with equities in past rallies suggest that the market will start to discount operational risk when the market risk of the underlying commodity is high. We are approaching these levels, the analyst said.
Wallis says the best performers will be smaller-capitalization gold miners. In that vein, he upgraded San Gold and Banro to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer but downgraded Teranga to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer.