Everything is bigger in Texas ... except for Donald Trump's lead in the polls.
In Texas, which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976, Donald Trump's lead has shrunk to as little as three points in some polls and many analysts are now calling the Lone Star state a swing state. The race is tight enough that Democratic Hillary Clinton is even diverting some of her campaign's resources and scheduling a few extra campaign stops in an effort to turn Texas blue.
Across all Lone Star polls, Trump's average lead is less than 5 points, with the most recent polls of Texas released Monday, according to Real Clear Politics. In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney beat President Barack Obama in the state by a whopping 16 points.
"I think that Texas is competitive this year," Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Politico. "I think it’ll be much closer than usual. I think it’s because of the Trump factor."
Polls and early voting data suggest Republican women are hesitant to embrace the GOP nominee this year. In recent weeks, Trump has faced mounting allegations of sexual assault and has responded to the accusations with indignation, insults and threats to bring lawsuits.
But the other group damaging Trump's chances to carry Texas is Latinos. Trump's campaign has hinged on a promise to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border — that he says will paid for by Mexico — and deport the approximately 11 million illegal immigrants currently residing in the U.S. He has also insulted the Latino community with insinuations that Mexican immigrants are criminals or rapists. In Texas, Latinos have been galvanized by Trump's rhetoric and are coming out in record numbers to support Clinton. A CBS/YouGov poll released Monday revealed just 31 percent of Latinos, which make up 28 percent of the state's voters, said they would vote for Trump.
Trump's struggles in Texas mirror similar difficulties in traditional red states like Arizona and Georgia, where Clinton could also pull ahead.