Canelo Alvarez takes on WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto on Nov. 21 in Las Vegas in what will be the second-biggest fight of the year. Undefeated welterweight Floyd Mayweather, who was heavily favored ahead of his May 2 mega-bout with Manny Pacquiao, had lower odds than Alvarez and won on all scorecards.
Betting site Bovada.lv gives Alvarez -325 odds to win, while Cotto is listed as a +250 underdog. The odds on a draw are +2000.
It’s not difficult to see why the Mexican boxer is favored. He has just one loss in his career, falling to Mayweather in 2013. Since then, Alvarez has gone 3-0, beating Alfredo Angulo, Erislandy Lara and James Kirkland. His last fight came on May 9 when he needed less than three full rounds to knock out Kirkland.
Cotto has been defeated four times in his career, losing back-to-back fights against Mayweather and Austin Trout in 2012. But he’s undefeated since linking up with trainer Freddie Roach, winning early stoppages against Delvin Rodriguez, Sergio Martinez and Daniel Geale. Cotto knocked out Geale in the fourth round of his last fight on June 6.
The odds have moved in Alvarez’s favor since the fight became official in the summer. Alvarez was a -250 favorite in July, while gamblers had the chance to bet on Cotto at +175. The betting public appears to be on the side of Alvarez, whose only career loss came against the best boxer of his generation.
The fight is being advertised as one that will be action-packed. Many fans complained about the 12-round bout between Mayweather and Pacquiao, but Alvarez and Cotto are known for putting on entertaining fights. Six of Alvarez’s last 10 fights have been decided via knockout, and seven of Cotto’s last 10 bouts haven’t gone the distance.
The odds are slightly in favor of the fight lasting 12 rounds. Bovada gives -175 odds that the bout will go the distance, and the odds of the fight ending early are +125.
Other than a draw, the least likely outcome is a Cotto win by KO or TKO (+450). An Alvarez victory by decision is nearly at even odds (+125), and an Alvarez victory by knockout (+275) is considered to be almost as likely as any kind of Cotto win.
In the month before his last fight, Alvarez was a -550 favorite against Kirkland. Cotto was given -600 odds to defeat Geale.